Brussels, 03/05/2006 (Agence Europe) - The increasing speed with which the 10 new Member States are catching up with the old, together with new opportunities for trade and investment for the old Member States of the EU, have made the most recent wave of enlargement an "undeniable economic success story", said Joaquin Almunia on Wednesday. Speaking to the press further to the adoption, by the College of Commissioners, of a communication assessing the economic situation two years after enlargement, the Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs said that he was confident that he had "strong arguments to present to European public opinion". These arguments are not rhetorical, but factual, he stressed adding that enlargement is a "win-win operation between the old and new Member States" and that as a result of this, the European economy will be able to "better tackle the challenges of globalisation". In the view of Olli Rehn as well, "the clear proof that the economies of all Member States are benefiting from the positive fallout of enlargement should dissipate all unfounded fears". The Commissioner in charge of Enlargement also pointed out that "people predicted a lot of pessimistic scenarios before the enlargement of the EU to the countries of Eastern Europe, but none of them has come true".
The Commission's communication focuses mainly on the two years which have passed since enlargement, but also on the period preceding the accession of 10 new countries on 1 May 2004. Economically speaking, enlargement has been an "enormously clear success" for the new and the old Member States alike, demonstrated Mr Almunia, referring in particular to the dynamic created by the rapprochement of the EU. Economic growth reached 3.75% between 1997 and 2005 in the new Member States (compared to an average of 2.5% in the EU of 15), which have experienced macro-economic and financial market stabilisation, helping them to offer attractive commercial and investment opportunities for companies from the old Member States. The EU of 15's share in total trade of the EU-10 countries rose from 56% in 1993 to 62% in 2005, with the result of significant commercial deficits in the 10 countries, even though these are on the decrease (around 3% of GNI in 2005). According to a calculation by the Confederation of Danish Industries, the increase in exports to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe has generated 35,000 jobs in Denmark, Olli Rehn went on to explain.
In terms of Direct Foreign Investment (191 billion EUR in 2004, or 40% of the total GNI of the EU-10), the increase has been considerable, given that such investments were practically non-existent just 10 years ago. At this stage, however, unemployment figures are disappointing, as changes have not yet enabled the new States to reach the same levels as those recorded by the other 15. Standing at 13.4% of the active population, the unemployment rate of the EU-10 is still some 5.5 points higher than that of the old Member States.
Playing down the effect of enlargement in terms of company delocalisations and therefore job losses, the Commission also stresses that the fears felt in the old Member States were "exaggerated". Although re-localisations may have had a significant impact on certain sectors, such as textiles, transport and the production of information and communication technologies, "there is no reason to believe that there is any mass transfer of activities and jobs from the old Member States to the new", the report added. According to our analyses, the number of jobs affected in the EU-15 is "not high", confirmed Mr Almunia. When called upon by the press to predict the effect of Turkish accession, Commission Almunia declined to draw a parallel between this specific analysis carried out of the most recent wave of enlargement and any future one. He simply pointed out that this study corroborates economic phenomena already observed in previous waves of accession.
The communication and the study by the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) and by the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs is available on the Commission's website: http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/publications/occasionalpapers_en.htm .