Brussels, 26/02/2004 (Agence Europe) - On Thursday the European Commission presented a new study on the likely patterns of immigration of workers after the next enlargement. According to a Commission spokesperson the results demonstrate that "fears of a huge wave of migration from the new Member States will be proven to be unfounded". The study by the European Commission and the EU Foundation for the Improvement in Living and Working Conditions shows that, even under conditions of full freedom of movement, migration from all new Member States to all current Member States would be likely to be about 1% of the working age population of the new Member States over the next five years approximately 220,000 per year, in a Union of 450 million. If the fact that the typical potential migrant from the acceding countries is young, highly educated, and living as a single person, the real problem is the serious risk of a "brain drain" from the accession countries, rather than the invasion of the EU's labour market, explained the spokesperson. The study states that "the receiving countries of the EU can expect a high quality labour supply, which should improve its short-term economic and its long-term socio-economic base with a more active demographic structure. This provides more opportunities than risks for the old EU Member States. Margot Wallström, acting Commissioner for Employment and Social Affairs (she's replacing Anna Diamantopoulou while the latter is campaigning in the Greek elections) stated that, "The new Member States will provide a much-needed input of highly skilled individuals able to contribute actively to the development of the European economy."
In practical terms, the study shows that about 2%-3% of the 15-24 age-group indicating a firm intention to move. About one-third of those who indicated a firm intention to move are students and a quarter educated to university level.
Apparently, unemployment does have an influence on migration in future Member States, but to a much lesser extent then previously thought and in a limited number of countries. Overall only 2% of unemployed people indicated a firm intention to move. Family situation does seem to influence people: of the 1% that indicated a firm intention to move, 70.4% were single people, compared to 26.0% that were married or cohabiting, and 3.6% who were widowed, divorced or separated.
The study did not attempt to identify the countries that will be the most affected by workers coming from the new Member States but we know that due to geographical proximity, Germany and Austria will be choice destinations.
However, the study does demonstrate that the major "migration potential" exists in Bulgaria and Romania, two countries that will not be joining the EU till 2007.
The survey was conducted in Spring 2002 in the 13 acceding and candidate countries. At this stage two countries (Ireland and the United Kingdom) have informed the Commission that they intend to restrict access to certain welfare benefits (EUROPE 25 February p 7), whereas six countries (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Spain and Portugal) have announced that they will be imposing restrictions.
(For details of the study: http: //http://www.eurofound.eu.int/newsroom/migration.htm ).