Has the Convention been forgotten? Preparations for the Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) that will spawn the first EU Constitution have hardly been launched with enthusiasm, to say the least. Everyone noticed the difference between the warm atmosphere a few days before when the draft treaty was presented to the European Parliament and the gloomy atmosphere of the Riva del Garda ministerial meeting. Verve and confidence had been replaced with prudence and suspicion. Most foreign ministers seemed more concerned at protecting their country's right to challenge the Convention's draft than to contribute towards a decisive advance in the European project. In practice, the Riva del Garda meeting established the same structures and methods that led to the defeat or pathetic outcome of the previous two IGCs. Despite efforts by the Italian Presidency and the foreign ministers of the other founder states, supported in part by some of their colleagues, most ministers rejected the Presidency's accelerated programme and draft timetable; demanded the right to re-open debate on areas where consensus was reached in the Convention; and set up a group of experts at heads of state level to prepare for the IGC meetings (see Europe of 9 September, pp 5/6).
The outcome and even the existence of the Convention were denied in the sense that most ministers refused to see the upcoming IGC as being different from normal because it was prepared not by government representatives (like all previous IGCs) but by a new body composed of Community institutions and national parliaments. We are aware just how innovative these brand new proceedings were in the history of Europe, a move towards democracy and transparency. Yet several foreign ministers gave the impression of thinking the IGC will start negotiating from scratch as if the Convention had never existed.
The refusal to consider the Italian suggestion of inviting the Convention Chairman, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, to participate in the IGC was highly significant in this connection. Only one foreign minister supported the idea. Sad and disconcerting after all that has been said about the significance of the Convention.
Despite this sorry start, I see three reasons for not overdramatising the situation or abandoning the aim of the Constitution being endorsed before the next European elections.
The "Six" and the rest… The first reason is that a significant group of countries believes the Convention's draft should not be challenged and the planned timetable should be respected. This group includes the six founder states (France, Germany, Italy and the three Benelux countries) and is supported to a greater or lesser extent by five other Member States (the UK, Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Denmark) and two acceding countries (Slovakia and the Czech Republic). Spain and possibly Finland may join them if some of their concerns are eased, and Cyprus and Malta may also join them.
The second reason is that the views of Central and Eastern European countries may change. One should have a lot of sympathy for them and understand their reluctance. These countries were until very recently members of a group where they had no autonomy and decisions were taken elsewhere. They retain a degree of suspicion with regard to supernationality and loss of sovereignty. They didn't win independence from Moscow to have the impression of transferring it to Brussels! Politicians and public opinion are very sensitive in this connection and it's understandable. These countries will gradually understand that sovereignty is not lost but pooled in the EU and national identities are respected and protected. But patience will be needed.
The third reason for not giving in to pessimism is that the European project will continue either way and what turns out to not be possible with 25 states will be possible in a smaller group. A number of countries are determined to make progress in defence, foreign policy and economic coordination and will do so. They are avoiding taking any spectacular initiatives for the moment in the hope that it will be possible to make progress together. But if the Convention's draft is neutered and emptied of substance in the above-mentioned areas, I would stake a claim that it will not be long before new plans are launched. The German foreign minister was quite explicit in Riva del Garda, it seems to me, stressing that if the draft Constitution were to fail, it would have an impact on the upcoming financial negotiations. A situation whereby the EU would be restricted to economic issues and solidarity, while the rest is done elsewhere, would not hold water. (F.R.)