Brussels, 14/01/2002 (Agence Europe) - On Tuesday, the European Commission will be adopting the ECOFIN Council recommendations on the updated Stability and Convergence Programmes presented by six Member States (Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Sweden). The first ECOFIN Council of 2002, to be held next Tuesday (22 January) will pronounce its verdict on these six countries' programmes - their public finances are relatively healthy despite the slowdown in economic growth. On 30 January the Commission will publish its views on the other nine Member States (whose Programmes will be assessed at the 12 February ECOFIN Council). The Programmes for France, Germany, Italy and Portugal are particularly controversial. The Commission has already commented that these countries' deficits were well above the targets set in the Stability and Growth Pact.
Commissioner Pedro Solbes' services are expected to confirm on Tuesday that the Stability Programmes of the first group of countries broadly meet the demands of the Stability and Growth Pact but the Commission is likely to stress that the middle-term achievement of the target of a broadly balanced budget is vital for Belgium which (along with Greece and Italy) is soon expected to reduce its debt to less than 60% of GDP. In its autumn economic forecasts, the Commission predicted that in 2002, the budget surpluses of Luxembourg and Finland would be almost 3% of their GDP, while Austria, Finland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg would be in the list of countries meeting the budget targets they set themselves for 2001 under their annual stability programmes. In November 2001, the Commission predicted that Belgium would have a budget surplus in 2003, after a 0.2% deficit in 2002.
EUROPE understands that the Commission is expected to put the spotlight on the model pupils which have plenty of room for manoeuvre for improving their budget policy. The Commission is expected to highlight that these countries would not all be able to take advantage of a year with growth levels below expectations to put off reaching their target of hitting budget equilibrium or surplus. Diplomatic sources suggest that no country will get good marks this year and that the assessments would be quite harsh - even the well-disciplined countries with surpluses would be criticised if their surpluses have fallen too drastically.