On Tuesday 8 July, the Ecofin Council is expected to approve the recommendations authorising fifteen Member States to activate the national opt-out clause of the Stability and Growth Pact in order to be allowed to deviate from their national budgetary trajectory by a maximum of 1.5% of national GDP each year over the period 2025–2028 (see EUROPE 13632/8).
In an interpretation note submitted on Wednesday 2 July to the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU (Coreper), the Council Secretariat points out that this clause, introduced when the fiscal rules were revised in 2024, can be activated in the event of “exceptional circumstances outside the control of Member States” – in this case the rearmament of Member States to deal with the potential threat from Russia and to make up for the announced US withdrawal from Ukraine – having a “major” impact on the public finances of the Member State in question, provided that the planned deviation does not jeopardise “endanger fiscal sustainability over the medium term”.
The fifteen countries concerned are: Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland. Germany also wants to activate the opt-out clause, but has yet to present a draft budget plan for 2025 or its multiannual budget path.
The EU Council notes that the European loans that Member States will request via the €150 billion ‘SAFE’ instrument will be taken into account in calculating the budgetary deviation, capped at 1.5% of national GDP (see EUROPE 13645/28).
See the EU Council’s note: https://aeur.eu/f/hnw
See the specific recommendations for the fifteen Member States: https://aeur.eu/f/hnx (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)