On Thursday 19 September, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced a new aid package for Ukraine to support its energy infrastructure as winter approaches, in the company of the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, who had come to present the Agency’s new report on the subject.
A total of €160 million will be made available to support Ukraine over the winter season, including €60 million in humanitarian aid (shelters, heating, etc.) and €100 million for repair work and the development of renewable energies.
This second amount will come from frozen Russian assets, “because it is right that Russia should pay for the destruction it has caused”, said Ms von der Leyen.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the vulnerabilities of the Ukrainian energy system have increased, with a significant escalation in attacks on power stations, thermal power plants and transport networks since spring 2024.
Restoration and export of 4.5 GW. Over the summer, Ukraine’s electricity deficit was significant, with production capacity falling by more than 2 GW compared with peak demand of 12 GW.
The IEA expects the deficit to increase this winter, with demand likely to reach 18.5 GW.
“Even with the return of nuclear units from maintenance over the summer, and the continued import of 1.7 GW of electricity from Ukraine’s European neighbours, the supply deficit could reach as much as 6 GW”, warns the IEA report entitled ‘Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter’.
The European Commission has indicated that it intends to restore and export a total of 4.5 GW this winter, with the aim of repairing power stations and supplying the necessary equipment, in order to cover 15% of Ukraine’s needs and increase EU electricity exports to meet 12% of requirements.
In its report, the IEA also warns of heat supply problems in Ukraine’s major cities and expresses concern that a colder than average winter will increase the need for imports from Central and Eastern Europe.
Decentralisation of supply. Among the 10 actions listed in the report, the IEA calls for the physical and IT security of Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure to be strengthened, for electricity transmission capacity with the EU to be increased, and for energy supplies to be decentralised so that the system is less vulnerable to attack.
To achieve this, the Agency suggests speeding up the deployment of small-scale gas-fired combined heat and power plants and solar photovoltaic and wind energy systems, as well as batteries and other storage technologies.
Electricity security in Moldova. The IEA also acknowledges the case of Moldova, which obtains most of its electricity from a power plant in the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria.
According to the Agency, the expiry, at the end of 2024, of the agreement on the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine creates major uncertainty for gas deliveries to the Transnistria region and for Moldova’s electricity security.
The report therefore calls for a coordinated approach to ensuring the energy security of both countries, given that their energy issues are “closely linked”.
Price volatility in South-Eastern Europe. However, the EU’s support for Ukraine’s energy needs reflects the recent appeal from the countries of South-Eastern Europe, more specifically the letter from the Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, sent to the European Commission on 13 September (see EUROPE 13482/16).
He was outraged by the high electricity prices in the region this summer and questioned the EU’s exports to Ukraine to cope with the disruption to the Ukrainian energy system.
Ms von der Leyen believes that the Russian attacks have indeed played a role in price volatility in the region, “but a more limited one”. She believes that a multitude of factors need to be taken into account, such as “the pressure of climate change on our energy systems and the issue of better interconnection within the European Union”.
The European Commission has indicated that it is in the process of analysing the situation in the region and initiating discussions at a technical level, recognising the need to increase network flexibility and interconnections.
The issue will be discussed at ministerial level and at the meeting of the High Level Group of the Central and South-Eastern Europe Energy Connectivity (CESEC) in Budapest, in late October.
To see the IEA report: https://aeur.eu/f/dhk (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)