On Friday 13 September in Budapest, the finance ministers of the euro area countries will review developments in the macroeconomic situation since their last meeting in July.
Not all the ministers are expected to be in attendance at this meeting, which has been called by the President of the Eurogroup, Paschal Donohoe, but which is taking place before the informal meeting of the major European monetary powers. However, the Member States are reluctant to give too much visibility to this second meeting, scheduled for Friday 13 and Saturday 14 September, in reaction to the controversial action of the Hungarian Presidency of the EU Council, the host of this meeting, with the ‘mission for peace’ undertaken in Moscow by the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán.
Referring to earlier “speculation” that the Eurogroup would not be held in Budapest, following the example of the informal meeting of foreign affairs ministers, which was moved to Brussels, a European source indicated that the number of ministers present at the Eurogroup would be “more than a handful”.
European Commissioners Paolo Gentiloni and Valdis Dombrovskis will not be present in Budapest.
With regard to the macroeconomic situation, this source said that the latest available data confirmed the forecasts made before the summer break, with the economy still “subdued”, even though a rebound is still expected in the coming months. Inflation continues to fall and the job market, despite “cooling”, remains “robust”, they noted.
The European Central Bank will explain to the ministers the monetary policy decisions it will have taken the previous day, which may include a further cut in its key rates after the one in June (see EUROPE 13425/1).
In this context, the Commission representative will outline to participants the discussions underway with the euro area countries on the implementation of the revised Stability and Growth Pact, in particular the link between the 2025 draft budget plans and the multiannual budget plans that Member States must present by the end of September.
According to this European source, the rules provide for “a margin” in the transmission of documents, which is however “not unlimited”. It can be used by countries such as France (see EUROPE 13478/18) and Belgium that do not have a government in place.
The Italian minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti, will inform the ministers of the work in progress concerning the loans that the G7 countries will grant to Ukraine from 2025 onwards by pledging them against the future profits (€3 to 4 billion per year) generated by the Bank of Russia assets immobilised on their territory (see EUROPE 13460/13). The main stumbling block is still the legal certainty of this initiative, the extent of which will depend on the duration of the sanctions against Russia.
This European source praised the efforts of the European Commission and the European External Action Service, which have almost finalised their proposal at a technical level. But “political aspects” have yet to be decided, they acknowledged, admitting that there was a link between this issue and the release of a tranche of IMF financial aid to Ukraine. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)