The foreign affairs ministers of the European Union countries will meet in Luxembourg on Monday 23 October for a half-day EU Council meeting devoted to the Middle East, Ukraine and the Caucasus.
Middle East. A few days after their extraordinary meeting (see EUROPE 13273/1) and the European Council (see EUROPE 13268/2), the ministers will again take stock of tensions in the Middle East following the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians.
While, according to one source, the discussions will depend on developments over the weekend – Israel’s possible ground offensive and the meeting in Cairo on the situation in Gaza – the ministers are expected to reiterate the European Union’s common position. According to a senior European official, they will focus in particular on ways of preventing an escalation of tensions in the region, particularly in Lebanon and the West Bank, the protection of civilians and humanitarian aid, as well as the issue of hostages.
The ministers may also return to the Cairo meeting, which some of them will be attending, along with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell.
Although a visit by Mr Borrell to the region was initially scheduled for early December, the ministers may now discuss the next steps to be taken. “The situation has changed completely. [...] I think he will visit in one way or another before December”, said the European official. The initial aim of the visit was to give fresh impetus to a political process in favour of a two-state solution, on the basis of the initiative launched in September in the margins of the UN General Assembly (see EUROPE 13253/30).
Ukraine. The EU Council is expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine once again, in particular the issues of military and non-military security commitments, and ways of making this offer more concrete, according to a diplomat.
These commitments could relate to : - the ‘European Peace Facility’ (EPF), with a proposal for €20 billion over four years; - strengthening the training mission of the Ukrainian army, with the possibility of additional training modules; - support for resilience in terms of cybernetics and the fight against disinformation; - financial support; - assistance with mine clearance; - and Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
The diplomat pointed out that the aim of the ministers’ discussion was not to go into detail, but to achieve a greater common understanding.
According to draft conclusions from the European Council on 26 and 27 October obtained by EUROPE (see EUROPE 13274/10), the leaders will invite the High Representative, “after consulting the EU Council”, to begin discussions with Ukraine on the EU’s future security commitments and to present the results of these discussions to the December European Council.
The ministers may also discuss the 8th instalment of the EPF, still blocked by Hungary despite the removal of the Hungarian bank OTP from the Ukrainian list of international sponsors of the war. According to several sources, Budapest would like guarantees that the bank can no longer be listed and that the list of people linked to the bank should be withdrawn.
Discussions on the €20 billion Facility are proceeding slowly. While, according to one European diplomat, there is unanimity on the desire to respond positively to Ukraine’s needs, questions remain about the support arrangements.
The subject of European sanctions against Russia could also be raised, as consultations with Member States on the 12th sanctions package are due to begin shortly, as is the question of the use of frozen Russian public assets.
According to the draft conclusions of the European Council, the leaders will ask the High Representative and the Commission to draw up the necessary proposals on this subject.
Azerbaijan/Armenia. The ministers will also examine the fragile situation in the Caucasus. They could discuss mediation by the President of the European Council with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and support for Armenia, which is hosting more than 100,000 refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh and fears for its territorial integrity.
“The discussion at the EU Council will focus on how to strengthen Armenia’s resilience, send a clear signal to Azerbaijan not to go beyond what has been done, strengthen the role of the EU mission in Armenia and see what can be done to strengthen ties with Armenia”, summed up a European official. He added that several possibilities could be explored in this area, such as visa liberalisation or a comprehensive and enhanced partnership agreement.
China. According to several sources, Mr Borrell will shortly be briefing the ministers on his visit to China, particularly in the context of the EU-China strategic dialogue (see EUROPE 13272/18).
Sahel. Mr Borrell was due to give a rapid update on the situation in the Sahel (see EUROPE 13253/29), but due to lack of time this item may not be discussed on Monday, according to a senior European official.
“Despite the multiplicity of crises, it is important not to forget this region and to remain committed to the Sahel”, stressed a European diplomat on Friday. The European Council on 26 and 27 October is expected to take up the subject for a strategic discussion. According to the draft conclusions, it is expected to confirm that “the European Union will remain committed to the main partners in the region who wish to work with it and to regional organisations, in particular ECOWAS”. It is also expected to express its concerns about “the continuing deterioration of security in the Sahel, aggravated by political instability”, and to call for the immediate release of President [Mohamed] Bazoum, still imprisoned since the military coup in Niger on 26 July.
Balkans. The Foreign Affairs Council could also be the opportunity to return to the situation, still very tense, between Serbia and Kosovo.
Discussions are expected to focus in particular on the response that the EU could provide, as the threat of sanctions against Belgrade looms large. Several voices, notably in the European Parliament, called for a tougher stance towards Serbia (see EUROPE 13275/20) following the murder of a Kosovar policeman by a group of Serbian gunmen near the border between the two countries at the end of September (see EUROPE 13257/21).
According to a senior European official, EU Special Representative Miroslav Lajčák will be visiting the region next week.
Central Asia. Following the formal session of the Foreign Affairs Council, the EU ministers will take part in the 19th EU/Central Asia ministerial meeting with Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. One of the aims of the meeting is to strengthen ties between the EU and the countries of Central Asia.
See the European Council’s draft conclusions of 17 October: https://aeur.eu/f/94e (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Aminata Niang and Thomas Mangin)