The European Commission briefed the ministers of the Member States at the Energy Council meeting in Luxembourg on Monday 19 June on recent developments in external energy relations and preparations for the winter.
As far as natural gas is concerned, thanks to the implementation of the ‘REPowerEU’ plan (see EUROPE 12955/4), the share of Russian gas in the EU’s total pipeline imports has fallen to around 8%. However, it is possible that Russian imports will cease altogether or that infrastructure incidents will put a strain on regasification capacity. Other risks include extreme weather conditions and rising global demand for gas.
Electricity supplies were adequate during the previous winter, thanks to proactive measures to reduce demand and increased production of renewable energy. This summer, it should be more abundant and less expensive due to lower gas prices and advances in nuclear energy. However, hot weather and drought could have an impact on hydroelectric production.
Member States have maintained their emergency oil stocks in accordance with EU legislation, guaranteeing stable security of supply. Sanctions and price capping have not had a significant impact on EU oil supplies, as Russian oil has been replaced by other sources.
Efforts to diversify have been successful, with other suppliers such as Norway and the United States replacing Russia as the main gas suppliers. The ‘AggregateEU’ platform (see EUROPE 13151/3) facilitates joint purchasing and aggregation of demand, further strengthening diversification efforts.
Gas stocks were well filled, exceeding requirements and reaching a level of almost 70% on 1 June. Storage levels are expected to reach 90 billion m³ by the end of October, even in the absence of pipeline supplies from Russia. There are plans to store the gas in neighbouring countries, such as Ukraine, which has considerable storage capacity. However, it may be difficult to achieve the storage target before winter because of pipeline capacity constraints and the late start of injections.
Demand reduction measures have been effective, with the voluntary target of reducing gas demand by 15% between August 2022 and March 2023 having been exceeded with a reduction of 18%. The extension of the voluntary target until March 2024 aims to save a further 60 billion m³ of gas.
The Commission is assessing the need to extend the emergency regulations adopted in response to last year’s energy crisis. While some do not need to be extended, measures to fill any potential gaps in solidarity provisions and group purchasing are envisaged.
See the Commission’s note: https://aeur.eu/f/7li (Original version in French by Nithya Paquiry)