The foreign ministers will discuss, on Monday 20 February, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Moldova and Iran.
Although not formally on the agenda, ministers are expected to show solidarity with the victims of the 6 February earthquakes that devastated southern Turkey and northwestern Syria. The diplomatic chief of the Union, Josep Borrell, could give a quick update on the EU’s assistance so far (see other news in related article). The European Commission and the Swedish Presidency could also provide information on the donors’ conference they will co-organise in March in Brussels in coordination with the Turkish authorities (see EUROPE 13118/4, 13117/12).
Ukraine. On the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ministers will discuss the situation in the country with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, who will be present in Brussels. According to a diplomat, the subsequent discussion among the EU27 will focus on support, accountability and diplomatic outreach.
The ministers will discuss support for Ukraine, including military support. In particular, they will reportedly look into the Estonian proposal for joint procurement of ammunition, similar to the procurement of Covid-19 vaccines. No proposal from the European External Action Service will be on the table on Monday, but if ministers show interest, discussions could continue at the informal meeting of defence ministers on 7-8 March, at the ‘Foreign Affairs/Defence’ ministerial meeting on 20 March, and at the European Council on 23-24 March. “On Monday, it will be far too early to come to any conclusions. But we need to move fast. So it will be for the upcoming weeks”, summarised a European source.
The ministers are expected to discuss the 10th sanctions package, presented on 15 February by the Commission and the High Representative (see EUROPE 13122/2). According to a European source, the aim is to adopt these measures on 24 February, the anniversary of the invasion. This source said that the aim is to have an agreement at the level of the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU on Wednesday 22 February, so that the legal procedures can be concluded in time for the 24 February.
The EU Council could also return to the issue of accountability, whether it be concerning a tribunal or the freezing of Russian assets, and to diplomatic work in New York, with a view to adopting a resolution on the conflict, one year after the invasion. The Europeans want the most ambitious resolution possible, but one that also has the broadest international support.
Moldova. The ministers will have lunch with their Moldovan counterpart Nicu Popescu, who has just been reconfirmed after the change of government, and will discuss the situation in his country.
The discussions will focus on the impact of the Russian aggression against Ukraine on the Republic of Moldova and the evolving political and security challenges facing the country and the region. In particular, the EU Council could consider the possibility of a civilian EU security mission, which would focus on the country’s resilience in terms of hybrid threats and cyber security.
The Commission’s support, whether for Ukrainian refugees in the country or for energy, could also be discussed.
Afghanistan. Ministers will return to the situation in Afghanistan, which continues to be of concern to them. They will discuss the issue with UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed from a distance, and then look at ways to maintain aid to the Afghan people while keeping pressure on the Taliban regime.
The EU has taken a clear stance against recent Taliban decisions affecting women and girls (see EUROPE 13091/16, 13090/26) and is now banking on internal divisions within the regime to bring about change.
In any case, it is working on guidelines to provide basic aid to the Afghan population without having to go through the Taliban. The ministers want to reflect on how to deal with the Taliban, and even be tougher on them, says a European diplomat. However, there is no question of the EU adopting sanctions at this time.
Iran. The ministers will also discuss the situation in Iran and are expected to adopt a fifth package of sanctions against those responsible for the repression. The inclusion of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the EU list of terrorist organisations is not on the agenda for legal reasons.
The EU Council is also expected to discuss Iranian support for Russia as new sanctions may be adopted as part of the 10th sanctions package.
The situation of Europeans imprisoned in Iran could be discussed. “This will be an opportunity to put this issue even more at the centre (of the discussions) to see what positions emerge and what options are available”, said a diplomat, citing, for example, more coordinated diplomatic actions or public actions.
The EU Council could also address Iran’s nuclear programme and its destabilisation activities in the region.
According to one diplomat, ministers will think more strategically about what kind of policy and strategy to adopt towards Iran.
Climate/Energy. The EU Council will reportedly discuss climate and energy diplomacy. The ministers are expected to take stock of the international negotiations held last year, including COP27, and to prepare for the next ones, notably COP28 at the end of the year in Dubai. They could adopt conclusions on this climate diplomacy, but on Friday these were still being negotiated because of differences over what should be promoted as clean energy.
CSDP. The ministers are also expected to formally launch two EU CSDP missions: the EUMA Armenia Civilian Border Monitoring Mission with Azerbaijan, established on 23 January (see EUROPE 13105/5) and the EUMA Military Partnership Mission with Niger, established on 12 December 2022 (see EUROPE 13082/33), which aims to assist the country in its fight against armed terrorist groups.
EU Strategy for the African Great Lakes. The EU Council will adopt without debate the renewed EU integrated strategy for the Great Lakes, a strategically important region of Africa with which the EU intends to remain engaged, considering that it can play a driving role in the development of the continent, beyond the current upsurge of tensions between the DRC and Rwanda in the Kivus, which threatens regional security. Josep Borrell recently urged Rwanda to withdraw its support for the M23 and the DRC to cease all cooperation between the FARDC and armed groups in favour of dialogue and full respect for ongoing regional processes (Luanda and Nairobi processes), while announcing the imminent adoption of this strategy (see EUROPE 13121/22).
Ministers discussed this in November 2022, emphasising the need for a realistic strategy to support the region to “move from tension to confidence, from trafficking to trade and from competition to regional integration” (see EUROPE 13062/9). The strategy, entitled ‘supporting the transformation of the root causes of instability into shared opportunities’, will be set out in very dense conclusions, which should combine humanitarian aid, security, development, multilateralism, and highlight the UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.
There is “the will to give a long-term perspective, with an analysis of the root causes of conflicts and to outline solutions beyond the immediate current situation”, a diplomatic source said on Friday. Another European diplomat added that the “EU and its Member States are willing to re-engage in the region for the long term”.
The EU Council will adopt conclusions on EU priorities in UN human rights fora (see EUROPE 13122/35) and on the 5th Review Conference of the Chemical Weapons Convention, which is expected to take place in the second quarter of 2023.
Russia. Ahead of the EU Council, the ministers will discuss the situation of civil society in Russia at a breakfast hosted by Poland and Lithuania with political activist and former Russian chess champion Garry Kasparov. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, Léa Marchal and Aminata Niang)