One year ahead of schedule, the elections for the Presidency of the Republic of Ukraine were held on 24 May 2014. The pro-western billionaire businessmen Petro Poroshenko had them sewn up in the first round. On 27 June, he travelled to Brussels to sign the association agreement with the European Union (see EUROPE 11110/3). That September, it was ratified by the Ukrainian parliament.
The Maïdan revolution, which was considered a coup d’etat by Russia, was over, but the domestic situation was quickly going downhill. In the east, in the Russian-speaking region of Donbass, what started out as ‘anti-Maïdan’ demonstrations evolved into an armed uprising, against both the new government, which they felt was illegitimate, and the Ukrainian state itself. On 7 April, the People’s Republic of Donetsk was declared; on 11 May, Lugansk followed suit: two regions of the country had broken away. These republics were not recognised by the EU or the UN and, obviously, not by Kiyv. The Ukrainian army intervened, it advanced and then was forced into retreat by the insurgents, armed to the teeth by Russia, which was then accused of waging a ‘hybrid war’. What could Europe do?
On 6 June, several senior officials were present at the ceremonies to mark the Normandy landings. The Russians, Ukrainians, Germans and French agreed to create a conflict resolution entity, to be known from that point on as the ‘Normandy format’. In September, under the aegis of the OSCE, a memorandum of understanding was signed in Minsk, but the ceasefire lasted just a few short weeks. In early 2015, battle was raging and the Ukrainian army was being pushed back. A peace plan (baptised ‘Minsk II’) was signed on 12 February, in the presence of Presidents Putin and Poroshenko. Amongst other things, the plan made provision for amendments to the Ukrainian Constitution, moving towards a decentralisation of the State, with a specific status for the two separatist regions. The draft document, which enraged much of the population, did not make it through Parliament. In the local elections of October, voting was not possible in the conflict regions, due to insufficient security.
Hostilities continued. The war of Donbass is believed to have left 13,000 people dead, not to mention the damage to villages, practices of torture and shooting journalists dead. The recent military attack on Ukraine would show that as far as the Russian army is concerned, Donbass was already conquered territory. The ‘Normandy format’, which had somehow limped on to that point, was shelved indefinitely. The High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy had been excluded from it; this seems enormously paradoxical, given that the war directly affected the Twenty-Seven, with their ties to Ukraine in the form of an association agreement – but it must be borne in mind that Putin does not recognise the EU as an interlocutor.
The association agreement had still not reached the end of its trials and tribulations. In Netherlands in July 2015, the law on the consultative referendum had entered into force. Eurosceptics took advantage of this to collect the necessary signatures to allow the citizens to have a say on the above-mentioned agreement, and therefore to prevent its ratification. In The Hague on 3 March 2016, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, announced that Ukraine would not be a member of either the EU or NATO before the next 20-25 years: to say that Europe’s arms were not wide open is an enormous understatement. Yet this memorable stance did not change the outcome of the election of 6 April: 61% of votes cast were against the agreement. The Dutch government, which was not bound by this result, threw all its resources into ‘selling’ the text to the members of Parliament, which finally ratified it in May 2017.
As the other national parliaments had expressed no objections, the EU itself was able to ratify the agreement in July (i.e. nearly 3 years after the Ukrainian parliament), such that it finally entered into force on 1 September (see EUROPE 11853/11).
This agreement is extremely comprehensive. It includes a commercial plank consisting of deep free-trade zone and provisions on good governance, energy, transport, the environment and citizens (freedom to travel to the EU without a visa, eligibility of students to participate in the Erasmus+ programme, cultural exchanges, participation in research policy, support for civil society, etc.). Furthermore, over the period 2014-2020, 11 billion euros were earmarked for the European support programme for Ukraine.
Meanwhile in Kiyv, the national government had failed to keep its economic promises, or its pledge to end the war in Donbass. President Poroshenko was personally suspected of cronyism and of lining his own pockets during his term in office. He was cited in the ‘Panama Papers’ (2016) and then in the ‘Paradise Papers’ (2017). His inefficacy at tackling corruption ended up making him more and more unpopular. Even so, he decided to run for re-election in the presidential elections of spring 2019. However, he encountered a considerable obstacle to success in the form of a young actor and comedian, who had shot to fame in the Ukrainian television series ‘Servant of the People’ and had just created a political party of the same name. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a man with no political experience, campaigned on an anti-corruption ticket and was duly elected in the second round on 21 April, with more than 73% of the vote. Although they recognised that the elections had been held fairly and properly, European leaders were initially sceptical about the abilities of the youngest-ever Ukrainian President, a former actor to boot. The rest is history.
During the pandemic, the European Union demonstrated its solidarity with Ukraine, awarding the country 190 million euros. To help the country’s subsequent economic recovery, loans under favourable conditions were provided for a total of 1.2 billion euros.
The EU and several of its member states helped to train Ukraine soldiers before the Russian offensive began. Since the beginning of the invasion, the EU, via its European Peace Facility, can be credited with supplying military equipment and materials, extended on 28 February to lethal weaponry, in an unprecedented step (see EUROPE 12900/1). To Zelenskyy’s great despair, however, it has declined to send any air forces, amid concerns of a nuclear retaliation from Russia.
By way of humanitarian aid, shipments of equipment and first-aid packages began on 21 February (see EUROPE 12895/2, EUROPE 12899/7 and EUROPE 12900/6). On 1 March, the Commission announced that more than 500 million euros will be allocated for humanitarian assistance and civil protection for Ukraine and its neighbours (see EUROPE 12902/5). The EIB, moreover, would make up to 1.5 billion euros available to respond to immediate and future reconstruction needs (see EUROPE 12904/4).
The successful implementation of humanitarian corridors on the grounds depends on the ceasefires to which the invader is prepared to consent and, obviously, on the destination of these corridors. As for the hundreds of thousands of refugees massing on the borders of the neighbouring countries, the Council, by proposal of the Commission, agreed unanimously to trigger, for the first time ever, the 2001 directive on immediate temporary protection for the Ukrainians and – depending on the goodwill of the member states – nationals of third countries residing legally in Ukraine (see EUROPE 12903/1). European arms are open. Even so, the Commission had to remind the border guards of the countries of the eastern EU that they are not permitted to discriminate on the basis of skin colour, as is allegedly the case, according to eyewitness reports from people crossing into Poland (see EUROPE 12902/4). Let us observe that it is no longer a question of building walls and barbed wire fences on the external borders of the EU even though the ‘migratory pressure’ is exceptionally high…
On 28 February, President Zelenskyy signed an application on behalf of his country to join the EU. He had the Constitution on his side: EU accession has been listed in it as an objective since 2019. He repeated his request the next day when addressing the European Parliament, which adopted a resolution by an overwhelming majority calling for the possibility to award Ukraine EU candidate status (see EUROPE 12901/1) and for the defence of the country to be stepped up (see EUROPE 12901/2). While stressing Ukraine’s place in the European family, the Commission made no promises and the European Council is certainly unlikely to find unanimous support for Ukrainian accession. The ministers held their first debate on 4 March (see EUROPE 12904/16).
The day before, moreover, Georgia and Moldova also officially submitted their candidacies: three accession applications in a week, which is unheard of! This is undoubtedly a sign of the attraction the European Union continues to hold in a dangerous context, but its leaders must return seriously to the question of enlargement, with no taboo and without discrimination against the countries of the Western Balkans, who have been waiting their turn for far too long – and also ceasing to think that our citizens would necessarily be hostile to them. Will their arms be open?
In the meantime, the atrocities of war are escalating everywhere in the country and Kiyv is believed to be surrounded. The worst is still to come. Despite all our shows of solidarity, we are standing by, helplessly watching a large-scale massacre that can be imputed solely to the madness of an autocrat. Future generations will wonder how these horrors could have been allowed to happen.
Renaud Denuit