The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, said on Tuesday 8 February that Russia would not invade Ukraine.
“I would not say that we are on the verge of war [...] I don’t believe that Russia is going to invade Ukraine”, he said at the inaugural event of the Jean Monnet Conversations series, in partnership with the French Embassy and the Atlantic Council in Washington, while noting that this was the “most critical moment” since the end of the Cold War.
While he did not envisage a “classic” conflict, Borrell warned that this did not mean that Russia was not capable of doing a great deal of damage to Ukraine without sending troops, including through cyber attacks or political destabilisation.
According to him, Russia’s objective is not to invade Ukraine, but to put pressure on the country to start discussions about Russian security concerns.
The High Representative also explained that the Ukrainians had asked the international community to adopt a more moderate attitude to these concerns. “They didn’t say not to worry, but to try to control our narrative, because it hurts them financially”, he said, explaining, for example, that announcing the departure of diplomats for security reasons scared investors. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)