On 24 August, the scientists’ group Scientist Rebellion released part of the report of the third working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is due to be officially published in March 2022.
Addressing solutions to mitigate climate change and its effects, the Group 3 report is one of the three parts of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report on the state of knowledge on climate change.
In particular, the leaked documents stress that the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to below 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels requires “fundamental structural changes at global scale”, while warning of the dangers of “weaker near-term action”.
It also adds: “Pathways consistent with limiting global warming to below 2°C and 1.5°C entail rapid emissions reductions and a fundamental transformation of all sectors and all regions in order to reach net zero CO2 emissions globally along with deep reductions in non-CO2 emissions”.
The documents also state that “energy demand has only decoupled from economic growth in relative terms, not in absolute amounts”. Questioning the possibility of a global decoupling of emissions growth from GDP growth, the IPCC notes that “substantial decarbonisation of the energy system was only noticeable in North America, Europe and Eurasia, whereas globally the amount of CO2 per unit of energy has practically remained unchanged over the last three decades”.
At the end of June, a draft of the Group 1 report on the physical understanding of climate change - officially released on 9 August - was also leaked to the press, angering some IPCC scientists.
Scientist Rebellion members justified the new document leak on the grounds that governments, under pressure from industries such as fossil fuels, “will likely water down conclusions during the intergovernmental approval process, before the official report is released”.
The Group 2 report on the impacts of climate change, the vulnerability of human societies and ecosystems to climate change, and possible adaptations to cope with the consequences of climate change is due in February 2022.
In addition, a synthesis report of the three components is expected by the end of September 2022.
See the documents leaked by Scientist Rebellion: https://bit.ly/3t4eMc1 (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)