The European Commission is gradually drawing up the contours of the ‘secure connectivity constellation’, according to an internal document consulted by EUROPE on Wednesday 16 June.
This document, which takes stock of the reflections on the European space project (see EUROPE 12634/9), is based, among other things, on the first part of the first study submitted to the European Commission by major players in the space sector (Airbus, Arianespace, Eutelsat, Hispasat, OHB, Orange, SES, Telespazio and Thales Alenia Space), as well as on other studies and on exchanges with the Member States.
Among the main principles envisaged, the constellation would be multi-orbital (low orbit, medium orbit and geostationary orbit) and would cover Europe as well as strategic areas such as the Arctic. The constellation would be scalable and build on existing structures. It would integrate GovSatCom and EuroQCI (European Quantum Communication Network). This would be a public-private partnership.
The constellation would cover secure institutional and governmental communications, infrastructure management (air, rail, road, etc.), reinforce the Galileo network. It could also play a role in crisis management and surveillance (border, maritime or Arctic surveillance and, of course, space surveillance).
On the commercial side, the constellation would integrate 5G and 6G and could have applications for autonomous mobility, digital health, in-flight and maritime connectivity and the Internet of Things.
Four scenarios
Thus, four scenarios are on the table, all combining a multi-orbital solution, with adjustments made to the low-earth orbit satellite network. A first scenario foresees a constellation of 80 satellites of 700 kg (Small LEO scenario). A second scenario (‘Pivot’ Large LEO scenario) is based on a constellation of 200 satellites of 700 kg.
A third scenario (‘Pivot’ very large LEO scenario) includes 200 satellites of 700 kg in low earth orbit and a further 1,000 smaller satellites of 350 kg. Finally, the fourth scenario (‘Pivot’ 5G mobile scenario) includes 200 satellites of 700 kg and 440 satellites dedicated to 5G.
All scenarios would meet 100% of the government’s demands for the period from 2025 to 2040. However, commercial demands would only be partially covered.
Thus, the first scenario would cover 28% of the commercial demand over the period 2025 to 2030 and only 4% for the period between 2030 and 2040. The two scenarios most suited to commercial demand are the third and the fourth, with the third scenario having the greatest coverage, as it would meet 67% of commercial needs for the period 2030-2040.
The constellation would be deployed in three stages. A first stage, in 2022, would build on existing structures. Then, in 2024, the second stage would be launched, which would focus on government communications. Finally, the third stage would be devoted to market needs.
The study has started its second phase and will aim to specify the functioning of the constellation and its articulation with the EU space programme and, above all, will seek to make an initial estimate of the cost of the project.
The initial budget envisaged was €6 billion (see EUROPE 12640/22). But the most ambitious scenarios would certainly have a much higher budget. A second study, focusing on smaller players (notably start-ups), is due to be launched in the coming days. (Original version in French by Pascal Hansens)