The current plans of the countries that have signed the Paris agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions put the world on a path to reduce emissions by only 0.5% in 2030 compared to 2010, far from the reduction required to meet the objectives of the agreement, says an interim summary of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), published on Friday 26 February by the United Nations (UN).
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this reduction should be 45 or 25% to limit global warming to 1.5°C and 2°C respectively, the UN said.
This interim report thus represents “a red alert for our planet”, said the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres. He called on the major emitting countries to “step up with much more ambitious emissions reductions targets for 2030 in their Nationally Determined Contributions well before the November UN Climate Conference in Glasgow”, where COP26 will be hosted.
Analysing 48 NDCs submitted by 31 December 2020 by 75 signatory parties to the Paris Agreement (representing around 40% of all parties and 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions), the summary shows that only 2 of the 18 largest emitters, the United Kingdom and the European Union, submitted a truly enhanced version of their NDCs in 2020 (see EUROPE 12625/1).
“Other major emitters either submitted NDCs presenting a very low increase in their ambition level or have not presented NDCs yet”, the UN deplored.
According to a separate analysis by Climate Action Tracker, a consortium of two research institutes, Japan, South Korea, Russia, New Zealand, Switzerland and Australia have all submitted plans that do not improve on their 2015 target. As for Brazil, it has not set an emission reduction target for 2030, the analysis says.
The United Nations will issue a final report on NDCs shortly before COP26.
See the summary: https://bit.ly/3kq79bL (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)