The 27 Heads of State or Government of the Member States had agreed on Thursday 15 October to re-discuss in December the European Commission's proposal to raise the European Union's climate target set for 2030, with the stated ambition of bringing the issue to a close.
However, on the eve of the European Council on Thursday 10 and Friday 11 December, the conclusion of an agreement remains uncertain, posing the risk that the EU will participate in the international climate summit on 12 December without having succeeded in raising its climate ambition.
“So far, we do not have an agreement, but the intention was not to reach an agreement before the (Heads of State or Government) meeting”, as this is an issue “that needs to be discussed by the leaders”, said an EU official on Wednesday 9 December.
Link to the budget
It must be said that a major difficulty has been added to an already complex process: the deadlock on the EU Recovery Plan and the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2021-2027 (see other news).
The raising of the climate target for 2030, which will be discussed by the leaders of the Member States on Thursday afternoon, is indeed strongly linked to the budgetary issue (see EUROPE 12617/7).
“Since you have many instruments that are in the recovery fund and the MFF, you have implicitly or explicitly a link between the two files”, said an EU official.
According to him, if the discussions on the MFF and the Recovery Plan fail, then it will be “more difficult” to resolve the issue of the EU 2030 climate target, as the enabling framework and the funds needed for the transition of some Member States will be blocked.
Moreover, reaching an agreement between the EU-27 on the MFF and the Recovery Plan does not guarantee that the same will be done on the climate target, he added.
Enabling Framework
Other difficulties pose the risk that leaders may leave without an agreement.
As set out in the latest draft European Council conclusions, of which EUROPE has obtained a copy, the objective is for the EU-27 to commit to a net reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions of at least 55% below 1990 levels (the current 2030 target is a reduction of at least 40%).
However, some countries, such as the Czech Republic, would like the conclusions to contain more details on the enabling framework, i.e. the set of instruments, incentives, support and investments aimed at helping States in the energy transition, taking into account their different starting points (see EUROPE 12615/10).
Nevertheless, although the European Council conclusions should set out guidelines, it is up to the Commission and the co-legislators to work on detailed proposals, a European official recalled.
A reminder also expressed by MEP Bas Eickhout (Greens/EFA, Netherlands), who believes that providing details on the enabling framework is “the work of colegislators”.
Moreover, the question remains as to the exact wording of the objective that will be chosen. In particular, Bulgaria has reportedly already expressed its wish to delete the word ‘at least' and retain only the term ‘55% reduction'.
Some states, on the contrary, would like the EU not to aim for a net reduction of at least 55%, i.e. taking into account carbon absorption, but a ‘gross’ reduction.
Finally, for Bas Eickhout, if the talks fail, EU leaders should leave it up to the European Parliament and the EU Council to resolve the issue within the framework of the ‘Climate Law’. By thus switching to the classic co-decision procedure, the 2030 objective could then be adopted in the Council under the qualified majority rule, rather than unanimity.
See the latest draft conclusions: https://bit.ly/2VMnV9l (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)