Global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) continued to rise for the third consecutive year in 2019, putting the world on the path to warming above 3°C this century, a level well beyond the Paris Agreement targets of limiting global warming to below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published on Wednesday 9 December.
According to this document, emissions in 2019 reached a record 52.4 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent excluding emissions from land-use change and 59.1 Gt CO2-eq including the latter. This increase is due in particular to CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, which amounted to 38 Gt in 2019, a record level.
Disparities between countries
China remains by far the largest emitter, followed by the United States, the European Union (including the United Kingdom), India, Russia and Japan. Over the last ten years, these powers, along with international transport, have been responsible for 65% of global GHG emissions, according to UNEP.
However, this ranking changes radically when looking at per capita emissions. In this case, the United States is in first place, followed by Russia, Japan, China and the EU.
While emissions appear to be declining in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries, they are increasing in non-member countries that are experiencing strong growth in energy use to meet development needs, UNEP also notes.
Limited impact of Covid
While the report predicts a decrease in CO2 emissions of up to 7% in 2020 due to the impact of Covid-19 on economic activity, such a development would only correspond to a temperature drop of 0.01°C by 2050, warns UNEP.
On the other hand, a post-Covid economic recovery used to promote strong decarbonisation could lead to a reduction in emissions of around 15 Gt CO2-eq (a little more than 25%) by 2030 compared to current pre-Covid trends.
UNEP further notes that meeting the commitments made by governments under the Paris Agreement (known as Nationally Determined Contributions - NDCs) would lead to a 3.2°C increase in global temperatures by 2100.
The ambitions expressed in the NDCs would thus need to be about tripled to reach the trajectory of a 2°C global warming and be multiplied by at least five to reach the 1.5°C trajectory.
Finally, UNEP estimates that the year 2020 is likely to be the warmest year on record, with an intensification of fires, droughts, storms and melting glaciers.
To access the report: https://bit.ly/39Z5WF4 (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)