As a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, global energy demand is expected to fall by 5% in 2020, energy-related CO2 emissions by 7% and energy investments by 18%, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual World Energy Outlook report, published on Tuesday 13 October.
According to the report, oil consumption is expected to fall by 8% in 2020 and coal use by 7%.
Renewable energies, on the other hand, are less affected by the pandemic and its consequences than other fuels, recalls the IEA (see EUROPE 12496/25).
Developing different post-Covid-19 recovery scenarios, the agency predicts a leading role for renewables, particularly solar energy, in all scenarios.
In the one based on current policy parameters and on the assumption that the pandemic will be under control by 2021, the IEA estimates that renewable energies will cover 80% of the growth in world electricity demand over the next 10 years.
Under this scenario, hydropower would remain the main source of renewable energy in 2030. Nevertheless, solar energy still reportedly boasts the strongest growth, followed by onshore and offshore wind power. The share of coal is expected to be below 20% by 2040, while oil remains vulnerable to the major economic uncertainties resulting from the pandemic.
The agency also forecasts a considerable increase in the demand for natural gas, primarily in Asia.
The report also stresses that strong growth in renewable energy will need to be combined with significant investment in electricity grids and the implementation of appropriate policies.
“The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end in the next decade. [...] But without a large shift in government policies, there is no sign of a rapid decline”, Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, said in a statement.
See the report: https://bit.ly/3dlDJIl (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)