The European Union’s European Affairs Ministers, meeting in Luxembourg on Tuesday 13 October, unsurprisingly renewed their support for the EU’s chief negotiator on future relations with the United Kingdom, Michel Barnier, and European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič, who is responsible for monitoring the implementation of the British withdrawal agreement.
But they also called on citizens and businesses to prepare for all scenarios, including a potential lack of agreement by 1 January 2021, the end of the post-Brexit transition period. Such a situation would be “disastrous for both sides”, commented German Secretary of State Michael Roth, “but even more so for the United Kingdom”. London must make the necessary proposals quickly in order to reach an agreement, because time is running out, he said.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking before the Committee of the Regions, argued that an agreement is in the interests of both sides, even if the EU also must prepare itself for a failure of the negotiations.
A telephone call will take place on Wednesday 14 October between the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson.
With regard to the talks on the free trade agreement and on economic and security relations, Michel Barnier felt that there are still “a number of weeks and not days” left to continue the negotiations, according to the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Simon Coveney, after the ‘General Affairs’ Council.
The Irishman, who then held bilateral talks with the two men on the Northern Ireland Protocol, said he does not expect a “breakthrough” in the coming days between London and the EU. There has been “progress on a level playing field, but no progress on fisheries, where the parties remain far apart”, said Mr Coveney, referring to Michel Barnier’s presentation. And the interests of “European fishermen will certainly not be sold out in an attempt to achieve a successful trade deal with London”, he added.
Negotiations potentially extended to mid-November
According to a diplomatic source, the talks are expected to continue after the EU summit on Thursday 15 and Friday 16 October, which will serve to take stock of the progress of the negotiations. They could even potentially continue until the next meeting of the EU-27 scheduled for mid-November in Berlin on the sidelines of the EU/China Summit.
According to this source, the meeting provided the opportunity to reiterate the unity of the EU-27 and support for Mr Barnier, even if slight differences have indeed emerged in recent days on fisheries. Mr Barnier has in fact proposed overtures towards London which the Member States have rejected.
On fair competition and State aid, discussions have reportedly progressed on key principles and on an independent authority in the UK to monitor them. But this offer is still insufficient, according to this source, who said the slightest distortion of competition will have a significant effect in terms of competitive advantages for the United Kingdom.
In general, this source felt that London needs to make more proposals in order to benefit from a proposed “zero quota, zero tariff agreement”.
Withdrawal Agreement and Northern Ireland Protocol
Maroš Šefčovič reported that discussions are continuing with London on the implementation of the British withdrawal agreement and the Northern Ireland Protocol. A further meeting of the Joint Committee will take place next week, but the EU remains concerned about the timely implementation of these arrangements, which are to be implemented on 1 January 2021.
As such, Simon Coveney indicated that the UK’s Internal Market Bill, which violates certain provisions of the Northern Ireland Protocol, continues to be problematic. A “very clear message” was sent at the ministerial meeting that this law “should be withdrawn” before any agreement on the post-Brexit EU/UK relationship is signed or ratified. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)