COVID-19 undeniably reached Europe on an aeroplane. While the epidemic is globalised, the sanitary conditions at the destinations of trans-continental flights will continue to be vary enormously. Until such time as the eagerly awaited vaccine has been administered on a broad scale, European pensioners, the stalwarts of winter sun tourism outside school holidays, will think twice before buying an airline ticket: epidemiologists have shown them to be the highest-risk age group.
Is the in-flight ventilation system a transmission vector of the virus? The IATA uses two studies dating from 2017 to argue its case that the filtration systems used are as safe as those used in hospitals, and safer than air conditioning on trains or in offices. Germ protection, they claim, is virtually 100% on the most recent models; the only slight problem with that argument is that the aircraft actually being used are by no means brand new. A much more recent study, published in April and carried out on board a Boeing 767 by American researchers, led by the eminent Professeur Qingyan Chen (Purdue University, Indiana), showed that the aircraft’s air-conditioning system did not prevent the ‘droplets’ emitted when a carrier of the virus coughed just once from reaching passengers seated up to sixrows away. The fascinating video posted on Twitter showed the speed of this dissemination phenomenon. The disturbing conclusion published by Prof Chen in the Washington Post (30 April edition): “to be honest, airplanes are not designed to prevent infectious-disease transmission”.
This transmission could be slowed down by social distancing, as we all know. On 20 May, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) published a series of guidelines to ensure the safety of passengers’ health. Social distancing, they argue, can be carried out as far as possible in the cabin, other than for members of the same family. In other words, if it is not possible to establish a distance of 1.5 m, it is preferable to keep the middle seat free. However, on 10 May, the French Secretary of State for Transport announced that the social distancing rules would not apply to aircraft, only to other means of transport. IATA had been up in arms against this possibility for several weeks, on the grounds that no airline would be able to cover its costs if it applied this system. However, there are always those who will make their own minds up! In mid-April, Delta Airlines discontinued sales of the middle seats, at least until 30 June. American Airlines is selling only 50% of these seats until the end of this month at least. EasyJet is going even further, announcing an end to sales of the middle seats on all its aircraft.
On 13 May, the European Commissioner for Transport, Adina Vălean, said that “we are not recommending right now specifically to have empty seats in aeroplanes”, explaining that aircraft have certain features such as air filtering which should, she said, be sufficient. She went on to point out that the EASA and the ECDC have been tasked with evaluating any additional measures that could prove necessary to mitigate the risks (see EUROPE 12489/8).
Most airlines, therefore, have announced only that passengers’ temperatures will be taken before boarding and that it will be compulsory to wear masks on board, as well as deep-cleaning of the cabins. As for one of the very few pleasures of flying, the in-flight meal, the EASA-ECDC recommendations are drastic: reduced food and beverage service, preferably pre-packaged and canned products, contactless payments; also, no more ‘duty free’ perfume sales. Every passenger will, therefore, live in the fear of seeing his or her neighbour remove their mask, conversations will be automatically limited and laughing out loud a thing of the past. Fortunately, videos will help pass the time, each passenger in his or her own bubble; they just have to make sure they don’t press the wrong button by mistake (cabin crew having to apply hand sanitiser every 10 minutes?).
As the severe economic recession into which the EU is being plunged will have a dramatic social impact, far more European citizens will no longer be able to afford holidays, or perhaps only cheaper ones accessible by road or train. To return to viability, which will probably take 2 to 3 years at least, airlines will have to raise their prices, once they have reduced their staff, fleets and number of destinations, meaning that only prosperous businesses and wealthy individuals will be able to afford them. As was once the case, air travel will once again become a luxury product, not a mass means of transport.
Even among solvent members of society who aren’t worried about not getting their money back and don’t care about the misleading information provided by airlines and travel agents, or about catching the virus in the airport, on board the aeroplane or at the country of destination, there will also be a number of diehards who, as we have seen, forswear to fly out of respect for the planet. How can this group be won over? Some airlines have committed to carbon offsetting (ETS) via the CORSIA system, still in its pilot phase, which has failed to secure the Parliament’s support (see EUROPE 12484/12) and is currently the subject of IATA lobbying over the year to be selected as the reference year (see EUROPE 12487A19).
In early 2019, a European tax on kerosene was proposed by the Dutch government; some other member states seemed to be moving forward with the idea, but nothing’s been heard about it since. On 24 April of this year, in a letter to the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and Executive Vice-President Margrethe Vestager, 10 MEPs, including the chair of the committee on transport, Karima Delli, expressed their concern over State aid being awarded to the aviation sector and called for it to cease receiving undue benefits compared to other means of transport and to pay tax on the fuel it uses and VAT on all tickets (see EUROPE B 12475A5).
Addressing the committee on industry, research and energy (ITRE) of the European Parliament on 8 May, the Executive Vice-President of the Commission, Frans Timmermans, said “I still don’t understand why there is no tax on kerosene (…)! There is much to be done in this field and this will be part of our recovery plan” (see EUROPE 12483/12).
Soon be sorted, then…
Renaud Denuit