The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) is maintaining its alert level with regard to the coronavirus pandemic. In its seventh risk assessment, published on Wednesday 25 March, the EU agency continues to consider as “high” the risk that health systems will not be able to respond to the health crisis in the coming weeks due to a lack of capacity.
This seventh risk assessment broadly maintains the status quo compared to the previous version (see EUROPE 12445/2). It reiterates that the risk of widespread transmission between national communities is “moderate” when mitigation measures are in place and “high” if those measures are insufficient. She added that the risk of severe disease is “moderate” for the general population and “high” for the elderly or those at risk. As regards the state of preparedness of health systems, the report indicates that no EU Member State (nor those of the European Economic Area states and the United Kingdom) has an intensive care service that could cope with a hospitalisation requirement of 100 people per 100,000 inhabitants.
State of scientific knowledge
The purpose of this seventh version is to take stock of the state of scientific knowledge and to make a series of recommendations to Member States (such as the need to apply social distancing measures, to give priority to the testing of health workers, and to continue tracing people who have been in contact with an infected person).
The 35-page report takes stock of the situation as of 25 March, at which time there were 416,916 infections worldwide, with half of them in the EU/EEA. According to Italian studies, the basic reproduction number (R0) of the virus is between 2.76 and 3.25. The percentage of deaths out of the total number of reported cases is reportedly 5.4%, with a higher proportion among men and the elderly. The document confirms that asymptomatic patients can be contagious and suggests that the incubation period may range from 1 to 14 days, with a median period of 5 to 6 days. Based on the study of other coronaviruses, immunity could last up to 3 years, and a new infection is very unlikely during the same or next season, the ECDC believes. Finally, the report points out that there is no certainty that the virus will disappear with the change of season.
See the report: https://bit.ly/2y8VXMF (Original version in French by Sophie Petitjean)