The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)—which published another assessment of the risk generated by the spread of the coronavirus on Thursday, 12 March—has in turn recommended suspending mass gatherings and encouraging telecommuting to counter the spread of the virus. The ECDC’s analysis is notably based on that of the World Health Organization (WHO), which is now talking about a “pandemic”.
This new assessment, the sixth in a few months, is more alarming than the previous ones. The centre points out that current pace of the increase in cases of infection in the EU/European Economic Area (EEA) and the United Kingdom (its study area) reflects the trends observed in China from January to early February and those observed in Italy in mid-February—Italy representing 58% of the cases of infection (10,149) and 88% of the deaths (631) reported to date worldwide. According to the assessment, this territory is rapidly heading towards a scenario of “sustained” community transmission of COVID-19.
The document emphasises that the risk that healthcare system capacity will be exceeded in the coming weeks is considered high. The risk of transmission of COVID-19 in health and social institutions with large vulnerable populations is also considered high.
In this context, the ECDC calls for a rapid shift from a “containment” approach to a “mitigation” approach. To this end, it emphasises the relevance of social distancing measures, reorganising healthcare services (requisitioning as many healthcare personnel and as much equipment as possible, following an approach of “rationalisation” of resources), and even public awareness.
The day before, when announcing his decision to describe the spread of the virus as a “pandemic”, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus used an equally alarming tone, declaring: “we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction”. He added that only immediate response actions could reverse the trend. (Original version in French by Sophie Petitjean)