Sortir de la croissance
The economist Eloi Laurent, Professor in the School of Management and Innovation at the Sciences Po Centre for Economic Research, Paris, and Visiting Professor at Stanford University, has taken a gamble on demystifying growth, which over the course of the 20th century has become the permanent objective of and standard by which all economic policy is measured. This growth at all costs is the reason for the crisis of the biosphere we are currently experiencing and, to different degrees, contributes to all the other evils of the 21st century. Is it possible to break away from it? Yes, according to the author, who blends philosophy, economics and politics in a simple and highly readable style.
Right from the introduction, Laurent reminds us that we are living under the Empire of data (of which we produce 2.5 trillion octets a day) even though, strictly speaking, “data don’t exist” (all translations our own). “The figures that govern us are social constructs hiding a particular vision of the world and subjective and questionable methodological choices. Data, which are instruments of knowledge, result from hypotheses, models and techniques, but they are also marred by values, prejudice, ideology”, states the author, who points out that in the hands of decision-makers, these collections of data are renamed indicators and made into instruments of power. He then sets out to demonstrate that we are currently using flawed indicators, principally the sacrosanct GDP, to govern our economies. And, as we will see, he recommends re-channelling all economic activity into human well-being and resilience and sustainability of societies.
It is because these three “horizons of humanity” have been neglected by the economy since at least the 19th century that our prosperity, in the strict meaning of the word, is now under threat from social inequity and ecological crises. “We are facing an imminent dual risk of implosion and explosion that was diagnosed far too late, due to the lack of attention paid to the instruments that measure these. Our democracies are under threat from implosion as a result of the crisis of inequality, which feeds into a sense of resentment over identity, increases the distance between citizens and undermines the ideal of equality everywhere on the planet. Our societies are also under threat of explosion due to the worsening of our ecosystems, the degradation of which directly jeopardises our lifestyles, of which they are the bedrock. The early 21st century is therefore characterised by three related crises that are extremely worrying to anyone who is paying attention: the crisis of inequality, ecological crises and the democratic crisis”, Laurent argues.
The author points out that if economic indicators (growth rates, finance, profit levels) are anything to go by, the American economy seems to be flourishing and, in summer 2019, broke its own record for the longest period of consistent GDP growth. However, this does little to hide the reality of an America in which inequality of income and ownership is at an historic high, where life expectancy is dropping, where damage to the environment is accelerating… “The most striking symbol of how the United States is pillaging its own prosperity in the name of growth is without doubt the calamitous state of its infrastructure (bridges, roads, schools, water and energy networks, dams, etc.). This infrastructure, which is both common heritage and public property, is particularly useful to the poorest in society, but the wealthy need it as well. To restore this decaying infrastructure, the country would have to make an investment effort of 4.6 trillion dollars over 10 years, or around a quarter of annual national income. However, the 2017 budget (with its tax cuts: Ed) digs a hole of nearly 2 billion dollars in the public finances of the country”. Although the scale of the phenomenon is different, Europe is also suffering the secondary effects of this obsession with growth, based on a budgetary orthodoxy that is practically dogma on this side of the Atlantic. Here as well, infrastructure is suffering: obsolete schools and hospitals that are understaffed in many countries, schools and maternity hospitals closing in France, bridges crumbling away, including one that did so spectacularly and disastrously in Genoa, and one due as much to do responsibility as poor condition near Toulouse, to say nothing of the state of the roads everywhere and the tunnels in Brussels. This allows us to understand and welcome the calls made jointly by German business chiefs and unions to the federal government to invest 450 billion euros over 10 years in infrastructure, digitalisation and training.
Over the last three decades, inequality in earnings has grown in every region of the world, including Europe, and although the ‘yellow vest’ revolt in France can be seen as a reflection of the various concerns caused by the numerous crises affecting our society, it is clear that the loss of purchasing power has its own part in this. However, the crisis of inequality is far more emblematic in the United States, due to the very fact that a situation of full employment on low wages forces workers to hold down several jobs, against a backdrop of sustained growth but which not all American households are able to take advantage of. Between 1967 and 2013, GDP in the United States grew by 260%, yet the average household income has risen by just 13%. Laurent describes inequality as an “acid eroding human cooperation: it decimates trust between people and trust in institutions and hinders the search for shared knowledge”.
As for human domination of the biosphere, which is fuelled enormously by growth, the author reminds us that this operates at three levels: exploitation of the subsoil; colonisation of the surface and exploitation of the soil; the exploitation of living things. In 2017, the global economy extracted three times as many natural resources as it did in 1970 and the per capita consumption of natural resources in Europe was no less than 16 tonnes for every European citizen in 2017. According to recent calculations, in 1700, only 5% of the landmass was in use for intensive human activities, 45% was in a semi-natural state and 50% was completely wild. In 2000, 55% of the landmass was subjected to intensive human activity, 25% was in a semi-natural state and 20% was wild. Finally, recent research suggests that the extinction rate of species is currently in the region of 100 to 1000 extinctions for every 10,000 species per century, in other words a rate that is between 100 and 1000 times higher than that which has been observed on the earth over the last 500 million years. These figures, and many others besides, illustrate the increase in the speed with which our natural environment is being decimated and the urgent need to change to a different economic model.
To get out of growth, as the title of his book suggests, Laurent recommends taking action at European level, by amending the European Semester and, at national level, by following the example of Finland, which in 2017 adopted a new sustainable development strategy based on an objective of well-being and an objective of sustainability. In 2018 and 2019, Finland progressively looked for a way to include the sustainability criterion in its fiscal and budgetary decisions. As for the European Semester, the author considers that this has three major faults: it is based on GDP and growth; it is subject to the “imperialism of budgetary discipline”; it is based on an obsolete form of governance in which decisions are made in silos. He suggests replacing the current annual exercise of budgetary and macroeconomic monitoring with a longer-term process, which he calls a “multi-annual sustainable development pact”, to introduce social and environmental indicators, give the European Parliament a greater role and involve the social partners and NGOs in this process “other than purely cosmetically”.
In summary, getting out of the economy of growth, consumption and waste is possible, but requires a radical overhaul of the economic model. Beyond the various forms of activism, which are sometimes excessive, the citizens are to a considerable extent already aware of the damage caused by the current model, but also have no defence against crises. There is an urgent need for political leaders to start making the necessary decisions to restructure the economy. If Europe were to lead the way in this area, it would make internal cohesion gains and bolster its position on the international stage.
Olivier Jehin
Eloi Laurent. Sortir de la croissance – Mode d’emploi. Editions les liens qui libèrent (LLL). ISBN: 979-10-209-0776-9. 206 pages. Available in French only. €15.50
Embrace the Union
It would have been great to see a European writer coming up with this kind of title and these ideas. And yet, it is an American who is responsible for this lucid report, intended to explain to his fellow countrymen and women – but which is at least equally deserving of being read by Europeans – of the urgent need to tap the potential of the European Union and the transatlantic relationship and to support its development in the fields of defence and foreign affairs.
Max Bergmann’s standpoint that in a world in which autocracy is making a comeback, the United States needs a strong and united European partner now more than ever. He criticises the turn taken by American policy under the Presidency of Donald Trump, who treats his allies more like enemies and has sought to undermine the European Union by supporting Brexit, encouraging anti-EU feelings and right-wing populism, supporting the “anti-democratic” Hungarian and Polish governments and engaging in an economic war with the EU. The author, who argues that “the European Union in Brussels – not the European capitals nor NATO headquarters – has become the political centre of gravity for Europe”, calls on Americans to start reflecting on ways to restore the transatlantic alliance once Trump leaves office. He believes that there is no doubt that states such as the United Kingdom and France have lost the international influence they once had. Only Germany still has any, but it has shown itself to be incapable of stepping up to its role. As for the European Union, it is not yet sufficiently integrated. It lacks essential capabilities, particularly in the fields of security and defence. Its foreign policy is overly fragmented and it lacks a supranational fiscal policy. Bergmann therefore calls for American politicians to support a bolstering of the European Union, including in the fields of defence, integration and rationalisation of military capabilities, in the framework of a new “special relationship”, which would allow it to become the partner the US needs on the international scene. This privileged partnership would replace the one that exists with the United Kingdom, which is doomed to continue its decline into obscurity due to its withdrawal from the EU, which will make it less diplomatically important to the United States.
“The rise of the European Union as a strategic actor and global player is firmly in Washington’s interests”, Bergmann argues, yet he acknowledges that there may be differences between the two partners, mostly due to the right-wing ideology of American Conservatives. He calls on future American administrations to: hold a US/EU summit with the goal of announcing a new “special relationship” with the EU; hold a White House state dinner for the Presidents of the European Commission and the European Council; make Brussels the President’s first stop in Europe and give an address in the European Parliament; direct US embassies abroad to prioritise collaboration and engagement with EU delegations; bolster the security cooperation office within the US Embassy to the European Union; rejoin the Iran nuclear agreement; rejoin the Paris climate agreement; stop the trade war with Europe; reaffirm US support for arms control and international conventions; use US diplomatic influence to bolster European integration, including pushing for the adoption of qualified majority voting in foreign and security policy. (O.J.)
Max Bergmann. Embrace the Union – A New Progressive Approach for Reviving the Trans-Atlantic Alliance. Center for American Progress. The report may be downloaded free of charge from the following address: https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2019/10/31/476483/embrace-the-union/
Disinformation and electoral campaigns
This report, published by the Directorate General of Democracy of the Council of Europe, analyses the weaknesses created by disinformation and false news spread on the Internet by people (trolls) or robots (bots), and the rise of political marketing activities based on targeting data and algorithms. This economic activity is of great benefit to the social media and various other actors. Facebook, for instance, has created a targeting model that allowed political parties to access more than 162 million American users during an election campaign and to target them individually on the basis of age, sex, Congress district and interests. These days, all you need is 40,000 euros to pay for a propaganda operation on social networks, 5000 euros to launch a hate speech initiative and just 2600 euros will buy you 300,000 Twitter followers. The use of digital advertising by electoral candidates has also mushroomed. In the UK, for instance, it has grown from 0.3% of total advertising spend in 2011 to 42.8% in 2017. During the Brexit referendum campaign, researchers at universities in California and Swansea identified 156,252 Russian accounts tweeting about Brexit and observed that they posted more than 45,000 messages in the final 48 hours of the campaign.
The report argues that self-regulation by the social networks is not the answer and that other initiatives, such as public or independent bodies to verify information (he refers to snopes.com, Pagella in Italy, the Deutsche Forschungszentrum für künstliche Intelligenz and the International Fast[af1] -Checking Network) and the special East StratCom team in the EU is clearly incapable of keeping pace with the development of the phenomenon. Among several recommendations, the report suggests a clearer definition of disinformation, in order to establish malicious intent whilst ensuring the necessary balance with protecting the freedom of information. It also considers that the ban handed down in France (article L.52-1 of the electoral code) to use any commercial advertising procedure for the purposes of electoral propaganda in the six months preceding a general election could be rolled out, but with a shorter reference period, to regulate or ban any publication of disinformation on a wide and artificial scale. Digital spending abroad for election purposes could be considered gifts in kind from third parties, which are generally unlawful in most member countries of the Council of Europe. Finally, the Council could draw inspiration from EU Regulation 2016/679 on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data (GDPR) and the conclusions of the European Council of March 2018 on creating a legal framework to fight disinformation. (O.J.)
Yves-Marie Doublet. Disinformation and electoral campaigns. Editions du Conseil de l’Europe (http://book.coe.int ). ISBN: 978-92-871-8911-0. 46 pages. €9/US$18
The individual application under the European Convention on Human Rights
Penned by the President of the European Court of Human Rights and a lawyer at the Greek Court of Cassation, this short guide provides a simple breakdown of the various stages of the procedure before the organs of the Convention that protect 820 million people in Europe. It covers all stages from preparing and submitting an application to the Court to the full execution of a judgment of that Court and the conclusion of the surveillance procedure by the Committee of Ministers. (O.J.)
Linos-Alexandre Sicilianos and Maria-Andriani Kostopoulou. The individual application under the European Convention on Human Rights – a procedural guide. Editions du Conseil de l’Europe (http://book.coe.int ). ISBN: 978-92-871-8959-2. 164 pages. €16/US$32