The prospect of reaching an agreement with Boris Johnson's government on an orderly exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union remains possible and may even be close at hand, according to several sources on Wednesday 16 October as we were going to press.
From Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron even stated that a political agreement could be signed on Thursday, according to Reuters.
After several days of intense work, both sides have managed to make progress on the issues of the customs regime in Northern Ireland, with Northern Ireland’s consent that the ‘backstop’ be maintained, albeit in a more flexible form. The discussions are still focused on VAT issues. According to the Irish media, everything else has reportedly been settled, including the issue of a ‘level playing field’ in the post-Brexit trade relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom.
The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, is expected to brief the national ambassadors to the EU from the Twenty-Seven on Wednesday at the end of the day. Rumours were circulating that the British Prime Minister might arrive in Brussels on Wednesday evening to finalise a possible agreement.
In London, the British government also asked Parliament to sit on Saturday 19 October, with a view to voting in favour of a possible agreement. This sequence of events would allow Mr Johnson not to have to ask the Twenty-Seven for a further extension of the negotiating deadlines, as the House of Commons had indeed required of the British Prime Minister after 19 October, in order to avoid a no-deal Brexit.
During the day, national diplomatic sources put several options on the table: - a full agreement by the time of the European Summit; - a partial political agreement requiring another extraordinary European summit and a ‘technical’ extension; - a freeze.
The main difficulty “consists in making two things compatible that are a priori contradictory. Northern Ireland must be able to meet all the obligations of the internal market and customs union and continue to remain part of the United Kingdom's territory”, explained a national source earlier today. According to them, the Twenty-Seven want “the most complete possible agreement [on Thursday and Friday] to avoid a second European Council”.
For other Member States, in addition to ensuring that customs controls between the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland are properly carried out to prevent fraud, the focus was on the conditions for relaxing the rules for a level playing field negotiated with the previous government of Theresa May. This point was specifically highlighted by France and the Netherlands. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with editorial staff)