The candidate of the European People's Party family for the succession of Jean-Claude Juncker, the German Manfred Weber, was scheduled to meet, on Wednesday evening, 26 June in Berlin, with the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, the Party President, Joseph Daul, as well as the President of the CDU, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and the President of the CSU, Markus Schröder, to discuss his candidature to succeed the Luxembourger, but also to take stock with the Chancellor before his departure for the G20 in Osaka.
The EPP Group in the European Parliament considers that Manfred Weber retains all his chances and should not be eliminated from the race; the leader of the CDU/CSU would even be totally opposed to the idea that any candidate other than Manfred Weber for the EPP could join the Commission.
On the EPP side, the line was less clear at the end of last week, with some leaders acknowledging that alternatives to the German candidate could be part of the discussion, such as the Irish Leo Varadkar or the Croatian negotiator for the EPP, Andrej Plenković (EUROPE 12280/2).
Several EPP leaders and other political families also pointed out at the end of the Summit that none of the three official candidates of the political families in the running, namely Manfred Weber, Frans Timmermans for the PES and Margrethe Vestager for the liberal family, had a sufficient majority for the Commission presidency. But the EPP in the European Parliament, as well as the S&D group in the European Parliament, continued this week to push their Spitzenkandidaten, believing that the system put in place in 2014 should not be abandoned (EUROPE 12281/12). The S&D is therefore always behind Frans Timmermans.
To add to the confusion, 4 days before a European Summit supposed to lead to appointments, the European Parliament political groups had still not agreed on a joint work programme on Wednesday 26 (EUROPE 12282/14).
Several points of friction would prevent this common agreement, including issues related to minimum effective corporate taxation, a crucial point for the S&D. Nevertheless, work is progressing and the working groups continue to meet, several sources involved in these talks indicated on 26 June, considering that the very real difficulties are not necessarily insurmountable.
In the five working groups identified, the question of the carbon tax or the ETS system or the revision of the CAP is not yet agreed upon; the question of international trade also divides the groups, but also subjects such as mass surveillance with regard to domestic policy aspects. The groups have relaxed the pressure and seem to have given themselves until 12 July to make this coalition agreement a success.
As for the 'Spitzenkandidaten', some people know that it may not be possible to impose this system on the Council of the EU, because the European Parliament is not fully united behind the system, according to a member of a political group, even if the objective for the Greens/EFA, the S&D or the EPP is still to support a common candidate.
Faced with a deadlock with the Council of the EU, some groups - the Greens/EFA, for example - could thus open up to a candidate from outside this system, on condition that it also approves the European Parliament's work programme. Could these three 'Spitzenkandidaten', as well as a Greens/EFA candidate, then be appointed Vice-Presidents of the Commission in exchange? Speculation is on the rise in the European Parliament corridors.
In the meantime, given the lack of progress on the part of Member States, others fear above all a phase of "total blockage", for which we do not know how long it would last. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)