NATO Defence Ministers are expected to discuss, at their meeting in Brussels on Wednesday 26 June, how to respond to Russia if it fails to comply with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) by the 2 August deadline.
Russia has until 2 August to verifiably destroy its SSC-8 missiles, which violate the Treaty, the NATO Secretary General told the press on Tuesday 25 June.
This Thursday, "we will therefore decide on NATO's next steps, in case Russia does not comply with them. Our response will be defensive, measured and coordinated. We will not mirror what Russia is doing. We have no intention of deploying any new nuclear ground missiles in Europe", NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced. While warning that the alliance did not want a new arms race, the Secretary General explained that as Russia deploys new missiles, the Alliance must ensure that its deterrence and the defence of member countries remain credible and effective.
However, according to a diplomatic source, no countermeasures should be formally approved. "I think we are not yet adopting countermeasures, we are at the stage where the treaty is still alive and the message is to tell Russia to comply", said the source. "We're not at the stage where we're going to start spreading resources", she said.
However, if the Allies' objective is to bring Russia into compliance with the Treaty, "unfortunately, there is no indication that Russia intends to do so. In fact, it continues to develop and commission new missiles", said Mr Stoltenberg.
The INF issue is also expected to be discussed at a NATO-Russia Council next week. According to the American Ambassador to the Alliance, Kay Bailey Hutchison, the meeting could take place on Friday 5 July.
At a dinner, at which the Swedish and Finnish ministers and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy will attend, the Allies will discuss technological developments. "Effective deterrence and defence also requires maintaining a lead on the technology curve, including artificial intelligence, quantum computing and next-generation communications", said Mr Stoltenberg.
Ministers should therefore discuss how to use NATO's defence planning process to ensure that Allies invest in new technologies and how the development of joint capabilities can provide access to advanced capabilities that Allies would not have access to alone, such as next-generation drones and surveillance aircraft. Finally, Allies could look at NATO's standard-setting to ensure that its forces can operate together in a transparent manner. "We are also updating our guidelines for resilient infrastructure, including telecommunications", the Secretary General announced. According to him, these modern technologies could be "a promising area for future cooperation between NATO and the EU".
On Thursday morning, ministers will return to the issue of burden sharing - a subject dear to the Americans. "The real (expenditure) increase for 2019 is 3.9% for the European Allies and Canada", the Secretary General welcomed, adding that this was the 5th consecutive year of increased defence spending. This year, eight allies are expected to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence: Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, United Kingdom and United States. On the other hand, Luxembourg, Belgium and Spain remain at less than 1%. The Alliance's objective is for all its members to reach 2% by 2024. Ministers will also discuss defence and deterrence.
In addition, they will also approve NATO's first-ever space policy. It will provide a political framework on how NATO should address the opportunities and challenges in space for the Alliance's security and operations, according to Jens Stoltenberg. "NATO can serve as a key forum, bringing Allies together to share abilities and information", he said. But it will not be a question of making space an area for NATO action, one source said.
Finally, Allies will discuss Alliance support in Afghanistan and a meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS will close the day.
In addition, the new acting US Secretary of Defence, Mark T. Esper, could inform his counterparts about Iran. However, the subject is not officially on the agenda of the ministerial meeting. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)