The Foreign Ministers of the EU Member States are meeting in Luxembourg on Monday 8 April to discuss Venezuela, Afghanistan, the Eastern Partnership and, briefly, Libya.
Venezuela. Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Venezuela again over lunch. This is increasingly complex, with the lifting of Juan Guaidó's parliamentary immunity (see EUROPE 12229/22) and a risk of the internal conflict being exploited by Russia – pro-Maduro – and the United States – pro-Guaidó.
The EU Council will discuss the outcome of the second ministerial meeting of the Contact Group, in Quito on 28 March (see EUROPE 12225/12). While this group is continuing its technical work, particularly on the humanitarian situation and the elections, and is being received by both parties, it is lacking in the political dimension.
Ministers could consider what action to take if the process does not move forward. “One of the challenges of the discussion will be to consider all possible options, including targeted sanctions, if we fail to make progress”, one European source said. The group was created for an initial period of 90 days (see EUROPE 12184/2). “We are 60 days away; if after 90 days there is nothing, we will have to see all the options, including sanctions”, she continued. But no decision will be taken at this EU Council. “Diplomacy must be given a chance”, justified this source. On 28 March, the European Parliament called for additional sanctions against the Maduro regime (see EUROPE 12224/5).
The contact group is expected to meet again in early May in Costa Rica.
Afghanistan. Before lunch, the EU Council will discuss Afghanistan, including relations between the EU and the country (see EUROPE 12222/26). Efforts are underway to launch the peace process (see EUROPE 12221/19).
Europeans, the country's main donors, want to be closely involved in the process. “The EU has a fairly important role, it is seen as a credible actor”, explained a European diplomat, adding that the Union had the confidence of a number of actors, not only the government. “We have a clear and long-standing commitment, including to peace aid. If there is an agreement, it will have to be implemented. In this respect, the EU will have a role to play”, added the diplomat.
But EU support will not come at all costs. Europeans are concerned about the ongoing negotiations between the Taliban and the Americans in Doha, Qatar. “One of the main problems is that the Afghan President's team is increasingly being sidelined and there are concerns about the Afghan government's ability to get back into the discussions very quickly and be part of the game”, a European source explained.
She added that the EU was, at this stage, the only one to reiterate the importance of maintaining the democratic achievements of the past 18 years. Ministers are expected to adopt conclusions on Afghanistan.
Eastern Partnership. Ministers will also return to the Eastern Partnership, ahead of the ministerial meeting on 13 May and a high-level conference on 14 May, to celebrate the 10-year anniversary of the partnership.
“The results, 10 years later, are mixed”, said a European source. Indeed, while the countries have made progress, particularly in terms of trade, infrastructure and the economy, there are still major difficulties in the rule of law, the fight against corruption and good governance. Diplomatic leaders will discuss the implementation of the “20 objectives to be achieved by 2020”, and the prospects for the partnership, with a reflection on the future relationship with the Eastern Partnership countries after 2020.
On this subject, the Member States are divided. “Within the EU Council, there are two groups: those who think that we are not yet at the end of the road, that within the existing framework there is still a lot to do, and those who think that basically the policy we must pursue is to do more and more, that we must change the framework and the aims”, including possible EU membership, explained a European source. She added that Europeans must be clear about what they want with these countries and be careful not to divide the six member countries into two groups (the three most advanced: Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, and Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus).
Current issues. Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Libya (see other news), the Arab League summit on 31 March and the G7 ministerial meeting on 5 and 6 April in Dinard (France). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)