British Prime Minister Theresa May asked, on Friday 5 April, in a letter to the President of the European Council, for a further extension of the Article 50 period until 30 June, as she had already done in advance of the European Summit on 21 March.
Earlier in the week, the British leader had already asked for an extension until 22 May, the time to forge an alliance with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour that could secure a positive majority in the House of Commons on a soft Brexit (via a possible Customs Union).
This time, however, as discussions with Jeremy Corbyn continue and focus on the future relationship, and as a further decisive or indicative vote may take place next week, the British leader has admitted in her letter that the country may have to hold European elections. This is not a desirable outcome for either the United Kingdom or the EU, the Prime Minister warns, but the necessary legislation will be prepared in this sense, she writes, in case the withdrawal agreement is still not validated before 23 May.
Mrs May said she “accepted” the European Council's vision that any State still a member of the EU on 23 May 2019 would be legally obliged to organise this election.
When asked about this new request, the European Commission refused to take a position on Friday lunchtime, simply sending the EU's response back to the European Summit on 10 April, which will be responsible for taking a decision. But the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has already let leak his position on 5 April. He was indeed about to ask the Twenty-Seven to give their opinion on a long extension of at least one year, according to the BBC. A long extension that the Pole would call a “flextension” by allowing the United Kingdom to leave the EU during this period, as soon as the withdrawal agreement negotiated with the EU is ratified.
How can we ensure sincere cooperation from London?
In any case, it is the European Council, meeting on 10 April in Brussels, which will have to take this “political decision”, commented one diplomatic source, indicating that the discussions should be similar to those of 21 March: the leaders should ask Mrs May about her intentions and attach strict conditions to any extension, starting with a favourable vote in the House of Commons, which seems very uncertain 5 days before the summit.
In principle, the Twenty-Seven have always been in favour of an extension, even to varying degrees of interest; Ireland is particularly in favour of this long extension.
But an extension beyond the European elections and even until mid-2020 will ask the Twenty-Seven real questions about the principle of loyal cooperation with the United Kingdom, which will still be in the EU, but on the way out and perhaps led by a more hostile Prime Minister, like Boris Johnson.
So how can we guard against the risk that a departing Member State may try to disrupt discussions on the budget or any other strategic decision for the EU? The Twenty-Seven have already started to prepare for this and they could already ask Mrs May on Wednesday how she intends to ensure that this principle of sincere cooperation is respected in practice. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)