Even if a Brexit “deal” gets done next week, it will only be the first in a series of mini-deals that need to be agreed before Brexit day. And the potential pitfalls are numerous.
Step one is for the British prime minister to get her seven or eight Brexiteer cabinet ministers on side for “backstop” plan to keep the Irish border open, in case a future trade deal is not done in time. Several cabinet ministers fear the backstop will lock them into EU rules indefinitely, and are demanding to see full legal advice on how to get out of it.
Step two is to convince the Democratic Unionist Party – or at least the 10 MPs propping up Theresa May’s government – that the “backstop” will not result in Northern Ireland following different rules from the rest of the UK in areas such as customs, food or energy.
Step three is figuring out how many of the UK’s 639 voting members of Parliament she can count on to support not only the Irish backstop but the entire withdrawal agreement. Bloomberg’s Robert Hutton has a good explainer on the mathematics in Westminster.
“Even if we have an agreement, with champagne flowing over the glasses and cheeky red faces”, joked one EU diplomat, “we don’t know if it enters into force.”
And the political machinations in Brussels should not be overlooked. Some EU countries – including France, Germany and Denmark – are asking for additional concessions from the UK on fisheries and things like competition and tax law (“level playing field” concerns), if they are to agree to even a temporary UK-wide customs union (which some call the “backstop” to the [EU’s original] backstop” for the Irish border, or which one EU source described as a “customs union-ish thingy”).
If those demands sound familiar it’s because they are: they are the same demands made by EU countries in exchange for granting UK access to the single market under a future trade deal.
Many diplomats are also frustrated that they have not seen any legal texts, either on the backstop, the other outstanding issues in the withdrawal agreement (governance and geographical indications) and the draft political declaration on the future relationship.
MEPs are also getting worried about citizens’ rights during the post-Brexit transition period and in the event of no deal, and are considering penning another resolution to air their grievances.
As the The B-Word went to press, EU27ambassadors were meeting to hear the latest from the European Commission’s negotiating team. The Commission will also be briefing Brexit attachés in the coming weeks on contingency planning for the aviation sector, financial services, customs, data protection and citizens’ rights - and possibly publishing its long-awaited preparedness communication.
Legal proposals are due next week to carve out the UK from the EU’s commitments at the WTO and the Paris climate agreement.
It’s going to be difficult to keep the game going with so many pieces in play. (Sarah Collins)