British prime minister Theresa May may have laid her budget demons to rest, but the Brexit spectre continues to haunt her this Hallowe’en.
Despite further leadership challenges and ominous no-deal recession warnings, Theresa May and the British economy remain intact. But Brexit negotiators are hamstrung as long as the British government continues to fight over what kind of future trade deal they want with the EU.
Brexit talks have not moved on since the October European Council. The same problem remains: how to keep the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland open. And the same options are on the table: a combination of two “backstop” proposals and an extension of the transition period, which resurfaced at the Council a couple of weeks ago. The EU wants to give Mrs May time and space to get Eurosceptic Tories, Northern Irish unionists, and even Labour Remainers on side for the complex compromise. Even the European Parliament said it will delay its vote on the exit treaty until after the UK parliament has had its chance, so as not to add to the political pressure.
“We have to be careful about anything that can destabilise discussions in London”, one EU diplomat told the B-Word. “We have no interest in making her life more difficult.” But time is running out. “We’re worried that the conditions are not there in the UK for them to handle their process”, the diplomat added. “The politics are so complicated, we may end up having too little time”.
While Mrs May said this week the exit treaty is 95% finished, and EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier still hopes talks can be would up in November, most EU diplomats are looking ahead to December and even early January. EU ambassadors got an update on Wednesday from the EU’s deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand, but there was not much to report. Technical talks continued in Brussels this week between Weyand and her UK counterpart, Olly Robbins, but the political hurdle over the Irish border and future trade remains to be cleared.
Back in London, no news was bad news.
First, there was Norwegian premier Erna Solberg’s dashing of Conservative Remainers’ hopes for a “Norway for now” solution, which would see the UK remain part of the European Economic Area temporarily while it negotiates a Canada-style free trade deal with the EU. It was outlined by Conservative MP Nick Boles in The Times last week, but after meeting Mrs May in Oslo this week, Solberg said the idea - which is hated by Tory Brexiteers - would prove “difficult”.
Second, now that she has resigned her party leadership, German chancellor Angela Merkel can’t be relied upon to sweep in and save Brexit. But in a fascinating blog for the The Spectator, James Kirkup argues that Merkel’s resignation makes no difference because the UK - and former premier David Cameron in particular - has repeatedly “overestimated” Germany’s support.
Meanwhile, UK immigration minister Caroline Nokes sowed fear and confusion by telling MPs that employers will be responsible for checking whether EU nationals have the right to work in the UK after Brexit - despite the fact that the Home Office does not have its own system up and running yet. The UK has agreed that EU citizens currently living in the UK will retain their rights after Brexit as long as they apply for “settled status” (and have racked up five years of continuous residency), but the government has also pledged to end free movement for those arriving after a post-Brexit transition period.
Finally, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has warned a no-deal Brexit would plunge the UK into a recession, with unemployment almost doubling, house prices falling by a tenth and incomes falling.
As talks stagger into their final weeks, it’s unclear when and if a compromise can be reached.
Sarah Collins