Holding up the forthcoming negotiations on the 2021-2027 multiannual financial framework (MFF) “is not in the interests of any member state”, the European Budget Commissioner, Günther Oettinger, said in Brussels on Tuesday 28 August (our translation throughout), referring to the stand-off between Rome and the EU over migrants (see EUROPE 12049).
Italy has threatened to block the negotiations on the EU's next MFF unless the EU accedes to its requests over the migration crisis.
“There are many reasons why a stalemate is not in the interests of any member state”, Oettinger told a meeting with the press. If there is no agreement on the forthcoming MFF, the 2020 budget will be renewed for 2021, he pointed out. “This will mean that new challenges cannot be met”, the Commissioner warned.
For instance, it is very much in Italy's interests to reinforce the capacities of the agency Frontex, Oettinger went on to explain. Without an agreement on the MFF, there will be “no money for the 10,000 border guards” provided for in the Commission's proposal on the 2021-2027 MFF. The same goes for the new credits for European defence (a proposed €13.5 billion).
“Blocking the negotiations would not be clever, because it would be a bad thing for all member states, citizens, farmers, researchers and for the competitiveness” of the EU, Oettinger stressed.
A fifty-fifty chance. The Commission hopes to reach an agreement between the 27 EU countries and the Parliament before the European elections of May 2019. “I am optimistic”, said Oettinger, who puts the chances of success at '50-50'. He hopes that the European Council of December will give the necessary impetus in order to open the door to intense negotiations up to Spring 2019.
The Commissioner considers that if there is no agreement before the elections of May 2019, there will be “zero chance” of concluding a compromise on the MFF in 2019. Negotiations will have to start again in early 2020 and it might not be until the end of that year that the work concludes, spelling delays in the implementation of the programmes (cohesion, research, etc.), the Budget Commissioner fears.
Certainly, the agreement on the 2014-2020 MFF under the Commission of José Manuel Barroso was not reached until 15 December 2013, causing considerable delays in the programmes. “2014 was a lost year (in terms of budget). We need to learn lessons from the past”, Oettinger concluded. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)