On Thursday 22 March, heads of state and government were due to confirm that a summit between the EU and Turkey would be held on Monday 26 March in Varna (Bulgaria).
During the informal meeting on 23 September, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, announced that due to existing tension in the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean Sea, the question of the summit would be re-discussed during this European Council (see EUROPE 11968). Since then, two Greek soldiers have been arrested in Turkey for having illegally crossed the border (see EUROPE 11975).
In this regard, a senior European official asked about holding the summit, explained that he thought the “response will be positive”. Another European source added, "the majority of member states support the idea of holding a meeting”. This source also considered that the meeting could provide an occasion for sending an appropriate message to Turkey.
The President of Cyprus, Nicos Anastasiades, and Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, are expected to inform their counterparts about the situation and the latter could possibly offer their support to Cyprus and Greece. According to several different sources, the discussion is not expected to focus on relations with Turkey, in the broadest sense of the word, or provide a mandate to the President of the European Council to discuss certain subjects with Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although the Commission is proposing to release the second €3 billion tranche promised to Turkey for helping manage migrants, the subject is not expected to be debated during the European Council (see EUROPE 11981). A senior diplomat explained that the discussions in Varna would focus on areas of cooperation, such as migration and the fight against terrorism and not on visa liberalisation and modernisation of the customs union, as sought by Turkey.
Skipral Poisoning: London obtains unconditional support.
During the working dinner, leaders are expected to return to the subject of the poisoning of the former Russian spy, Sergei Skipral, in Salisbury, United Kingdom (see EUROPE 11985). After having listened to the British prime minister, Theresa May, the European Council is expected to provide, in its conclusions, “unreserved solidarity” to the United Kingdom and to condemn this attack “in the strongest possible terms”. The heads of state and government are expected to point out that they take the evaluation by the British government extremely seriously that, “it is highly likely that the Russian Federation is responsible”. Although, “the member states are organising coordination between themselves regarding the possible impact, in light of the responses provided by the Russian authorities" according to the draft conclusions on 19 March, several European sources have explained that this does not mean that sanctions would be taken and that the United Kingdom had not requested such measures.
As proposed by the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, in his of invitation to the summit, the leaders could possibly support strengthening resilience against biological, radiological and nuclear risks, particularly by way of closer co-operation between the EU institutions, states and NATO, as well as strengthening capabilities for opposing hybrid threats, such as those in the cyber domain, strategic communications and counter espionage.
According to one European source, the Russian presidential elections that saw a sweeping victory for Vladimir Putin, may also be discussed.
Leaders will discuss the Western Balkans, in view of the summit in Sofia on 17 May. According to the draft conclusions, the May summit is expected to focus on the reaffirmation of European perspectives in the region, the launch of concrete and visible initiatives to improve connectivity in the region and ways for improving the joint commitment on common challenges, such as migration and the fight against terrorism. Leaders are expected to postpone the question of enlargement until the June European Council. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, with editorial support)