In its much-awaited strategy on the Western Balkans, the European Commission said on Tuesday 6 February that "by 2025" "the EU could count over 27 member states".
Stating that Serbia and Montenegro had already opened their accession negotiations, the Commission said that with strong political resolve, implementation of effective and sustainable reforms, and definitive solutions to differences with their neighbours, they could potentially be ready to become members by 2025. It is an extremely ambitious perspective, the strategy immediately recognises, stating that it would depend entirely on the objective results and merits of each country. "The date can create a sort of positive pressure", European Commissioner for Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn said, warning that it is not a case of softening the conditions.
Even on Tuesday morning, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker showed caution, stating that this date was "indicative" (see other article). Similarly, during a presentation of the strategy to the media, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini said that it was not a target date or a deadline but a realistic perspective. This is a way, perhaps, of not rushing certain member states that were against the indication of any date. Similarly, the strategy states that the Union must be stronger and more solid before being able to be enriched.
The other Western Balkans countries are not outdone, with Mogherini and Hahn continually reiterating the prospect of accession for six Western Balkans countries, although five EU member states do not recognise the independence of Kosovo. According to the strategy, Albania and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are making significant progress on their European paths, and the Commission is ready to prepare recommendations for the opening of accession negotiations on the basis of fulfilled conditions. Mogherini hoped that this might be "in the coming months". The Commission is due to present its enlargement reports on 17 April, which could include these famous recommendations.
Similarly, the Commission will start to prepare an opinion on Bosnia-Herzegovina's request for accession after it has received full and complete answers to its questionnaire – a questionnaire that Sarajevo is late to return. A European source hoped, however, that this questionnaire, which includes "15,000 pages of answers" might be returned "in the next two or three weeks". With sustained efforts and commitment, Bosnia-Herzegovina could become an accession candidate, the strategy adds. In addition, Kosovo has the possibility of progressing sustainably thanks to the implementation of the stabilisation and association agreement, and to make progress on its European path once objective circumstances permit, the Commission states.
Strengthening the rule of law and settling conflicts
In its strategy, the Commission also speak about the areas in which the Western Balkans countries should progress. For the countries to fulfil all the accession conditions and strengthen their democracies, overall convincing reforms are still therefore needed in crucial areas, especially the rule of law, competitivity, regional cooperation and reconciliation, the strategy sums up. It also states that the launch of reforms in the areas of the rule of law, fundamental rights and good governance is the main criterion in the light of which the prospects of these countries will be assessed by the EU.
To avoid conflicts within the EU, the Commission, which does not want new border problems, as is the case with Cyprus or between Croatia and Slovenia, states that the EU will not agree to import these disputes and the instability to which they could lead. Definitive and binding solutions must be found and implemented before a country can join the EU. The Commission thus warns that a full normalisation agreement that is legally binding is urgent and crucial for Serbia and Kosovo to be able to move forward on their respective European paths. But, once again, when asked by EUROPE, Mogherini declined to say whether this meant a recognition of Kosovo's independence by Serbia.
Six initiatives to help the region
However, the Commission also recognises that the EU and its member states must also do their share of the work to help these countries. The strategy thus comprises six flagship initiatives in six areas: enhancing support for the rule of law, strengthening commitment on security and migration, improving support for socio-economic development, increasing connectivity in terms of transport and energy, launching a digital strategy for the Western Balkans, and supporting good neighbourhood relations. In total, the European Commission proposes 567 initiatives to be implemented by 2020.
In addition, the Commission wants increased participation from the Western Balkans in the informal Councils, and regular contact at ministerial level. At the end of the Western Balkans summit that will be held in Sofia in May 2018, the leaders of the EU should continue their dialogue with their counterparts from these countries, including in the framework of these summits, the strategy adds. The Commission also advocates extended and in-depth dialogues on foreign policy, security and common defence.
Likewise, according to the Commission, the EU should be prepared to welcome new members, especially from an institutional and financial point of view, as soon as these fulfil the necessary conditions. It thus intends to re-allocate €500 million from the pre-accession fund, which concerns the Western Balkans and Turkey, for 2019 and 2020.
According to Mogherini, "2018, particularly the first half, could be a turning point" for the prospect of the Western Balkans in the EU. This strategy is expected be discussed at the Gymnich Council next week, then at the European Council in March. In May, the leaders of the six countries and of the EU28 will meet in Sofia for the EU-Western Balkans summit, and in June the European Council is expected to again focus on the Balkans.
Support of MEPs
During the presentation of the strategy at the European Parliament's plenary session, nearly all the heads of the political groups said they were in favour of the accession of the Western Balkans, stating that these accessions would be made in the light of the pre-established criteria. The Western Balkans fully have their place in the EU, Charles Tannock (ECR, UK) stated, while Igor Šoltes (Greens/EFA, Slovenia) said that this accession would also be beneficial for the EU because without these six countries "there will be no stable and peaceful EU". "The EU will not be complete until the Western Balkans have joined" said Victor Boştinaru (S&D, Romania), for whom the EU is their only credible partner in the region.
For the EPP, David McAllister (Germany) said that, while "the Commission shows the path to be followed for these countries to join the EU", "the timetable depends on the respect of strict conditions", such as respect of the rule of law, the fight against organised crime or the resolution of bilateral conflicts. He thus summed up the main themes of the strategy. Ivo Vaigl (ALDE, Czech Republic) was on similar lines.
But for these countries to move ahead, the EU will have to support them, Takis Hadjigeorgiou (GUE/NGL, Cyprus) states. "We must help these countries build democracy, fight corruption, and put nationalism aside. We must not impose policies on them that would not be beneficial to them", he said.
Unlike the other groups, James Caver (EFDD, UK) spoke out against enlarging the EU to the Western Balkans, describing it as imperialisms and neo-colonialism.
The strategy can be consulted at: http://bit.ly/2E4wT7G . (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Mathieu Bion)