On Tuesday 14 November, the European Commission will hold a guideline debate on the 2018 'European Semester' budgetary process, which will officially launch on Wednesday 22 November.
The agenda will include discussions on the opinions to be returned by the European institution on the draft 2018 budgets of the Eurozone countries with the exception of Greece. At the end of October, it wrote to five Eurozone countries - Belgium, Spain, France, Italy and Portugal - asking for more information and a commitment to comply with the government deficit reduction trajectory agreed upon at European level (see EUROPE 11897).
It will also feature the Commission's assessment of France's draft 2018 budget, with a deficit in nominal terms expected to come in at a hair below 3% of GDP in 2017. In order to close the infringement proceedings against it, France must reduce its excessive deficit sustainably. However, assuming the status quo, the European institution predicts that the French deficit will be the same in 2018 as it was in 2017.
As regards Spain, the other Eurozone country in an excessive deficit situation, the uncertainty surrounding the Catalan crisis has forced the Rajoy government to present a 'status quo' draft budget. Standing at 3.1% of GDP in 2017, the Spanish deficit should be brought down to at least 2.5% of GDP in 2018. This trajectory leaves room to hope that the infringement proceedings against Spain will be closed in the future.
On Wednesday, the European Budgetary Committee, which advises the Commission on budgetary questions, will present its first annual report on the application of the Stability Pact and the budgetary positioning at Eurozone level.
Next week, the Commission is expected to reiterate the importance of the member states pursuing a prudent budgetary policy, based mainly on reducing debt, stimulating investment and sticking to the course of identified structural reforms. For each country, it will present its socio-economic policy recommendations.
On Thursday 9 November, the European institution's economic forecasts drew a positive picture of the Eurozone economy, with growth, put at 2% of GDP on average in 2017, to be the highest for ten years and positive in all 19 member countries (see EUROPE 11901).
Although they are all on green, the macro-economic indicators do not prevent an increase in socio-economic equality within one and the same country, such as an increase in the phenomenon of the working poor, particularly in Spain, or the absence of convergence between member states. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)