Council discussions this Thursday will begin with migration and its external features, with European leaders expected to welcome the stabilisation of migratory flows to the EU and to insist that the efforts that brought this diminution in flows must be continued.
While the situation is much more positive than two years ago, a diplomatic source said, new routes, for example, via Spain, are giving cause for concern and the member states will be keen to strengthen the action that has been taken over recent months, such as aid to stabilise the situation in Libya, cooperation with the countries neighbouring Libya and combatting traffickers.
In draft conclusions dating from 16 October, EU leaders highlight their commitment to remaining vigilant on the various migration routes and restate their commitment to cooperate in this area with Turkey and the Western Balkans, and ensure that CSDP missions are sufficiently well resourced. The draft conclusions also place emphasis on an effective policy on returning migrants to their countries of origin or to transit countries, a policy area where results are still not satisfactory, in the view of the member states. The conclusions will again address financing instruments, such as the Trust Fund for Africa.
Some countries, such as France, will use this discussion to ask for a collective effort on resettlement, the European Commission having called at the end of September for member states to provide 50,000 resettlement places.
On the domestic level, the member states will use this discussion to decide on the Schengen area of free movement and could say that they are ready to return to normal operation – that is, with no internal controls – of the free movement area though, along with this, must come recognition of the current terrorist threat, a formula that is seen as balanced by countries such as France which are carrying out controls at their internal borders.
However, and still on the internal level, there will probably be no progress on reform of the European asylum system and on reform of the Dublin regulation, on which discussion is continuing to try to reach consensus.
With the European Parliament expected to adopt its position on Dublin reform on Thursday morning, the deadline the Council has set itself to come to agreement is May-June 2018, a second European source said on Tuesday 17 October, the concern being achieving consensus and avoiding another traumatic episode like that of 2015 when the decisions on relocating asylum seekers were taken by qualified majority.
On Wednesday evening, the European Commission president is due to have dinner with the leaders of the countries which felt at the time that they had been badly treated – the so-called Visegrad countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia). The issue of migration is one that will in all likelihood be discussed.
According to the second European source, reform of the asylum system, which is foundering on the compulsory solidarity plank, is one of the biggest threats to the “unity” of the EU and the leaders are well aware of how extremely sensitive it is. A policy debate on this reform could take place in December. If, however, no agreement is possible by spring 2018, further debate will be required on the way forward.
On Thursday morning, the European Parliament’s civil liberties committee is likely to adopt a compromise which could get rid of the first-country-of-entry principle, one that is rejected by Italy and Greece, and replace it with a permanent relocation mechanism based on a range of criteria. According to a number of sources, a compromise was reached just ahead of the vote, making them confident of the outcome. The vote is scheduled to take place early on Thursday morning. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic, with the editorial team)