Negotiators are preparing for a final round of Brexit talks before a crunch October summit, but expectations are low that anything substantive will come out of it.
With the UK government unwilling (and unable) to move on money, and the EU drawing a firm red line over the role of the EU courts post-Brexit, hope has been all but lost that there will be a breakthrough next week.
It’s the fifth round of talks since negotiations began in June, and although some progress has been made on citizens’ rights - negotiators hope to ink a deal soon on social security benefits - there are still big differences over family members, migrant registration and EU courts.
EU officials are still pushing the UK to come forward with an offer on money, specifically, an admission that they are ready to pay for past obligations, the famous ‘reste à liquider’ - which EU auditors estimate had risen to a record €238.8 billion by the end of last year.
“It’s important they come out and put more on the table in terms of substance, and don’t do any more with rhetoric,” said a diplomat briefed on the talks.
A disastrous performance by British premier Theresa May at the Conservative Party conference this week - where she coughed her way through a speech, was interrupted by a protester handing her a pink slip and saw the stage start to fall apart around her - has weakened her personally. Reports in the British press on Friday suggested there was a strong push to oust her as prime minister, but a clear replacement has not emerged.
Several Brussels sources expressed pity for the prime minister’s position, though there is still a lot of resentment about the Brexit red lines set by her foreign secretary Boris Johnson (in articles in The Sun and The Daily Telegraph newspapers, and in his own party conference speech).
“People here have been truly rattled,” said one source. “They doubt a little bit who is really running it."
MEPs earlier this week called on the EU to halt talks on trade unless there was a “major breakthrough” on citizens, money and Ireland, the EU’s three priorities for the divorce deal, during next week’s talks (see EUROPE 11875).
And diplomats briefed on the talks are sceptical that it will be possible.
“They understand and we understand that, barring a tectonic shift, there will not be sufficient progress in October,” the diplomat said, on condition of anonymity.
There have been reports that exploratory talks on a transition phase could take place even if sufficient progress has not been made in October, but that would require EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier to ask for and get a new mandate from EU leaders.
What is most likely to happen in October is that EU leaders acknowledge some progress has been made, and either empower Mr Barnier to talk transition or tell him to continue with the divorce talks.
Meanwhile, national ambassadors met on Friday to present countries’ bids for the two London-based EU agencies - the European Medicines’ Agency (EMA) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) - set to relocate post-Brexit. There was no discussion of preferred locations but the EMA warned in a statement that it was anticipating staff and financial losses as a result of the move, which would need to be made up by the EU budget.
Yann Le Cam, patient representative on the EMA Board said the recreation decision should be based on “the capacity of the new host city to retain current staff and attract new people at the same level of quality”. (Sarah Collins)