On Saturday 1 July, Brigadier General Martin Herem from Estonia’s defence forces said that from its attitude, Russia is more dangerous today than several years ago.
“We can say they are more dangerous than several years ago”, he told a small group of journalists, including from EUROPE, who were visiting the battle group based in Tapa, Estonia. He stated that the Russians today have better, newer equipment, that they do snap exercises which shows that whatever they want to do they can do quickly, and that they are on permanent training.
Estonia especially has questions about the large-scale Russian exercise – Exercise Zapad - that will take place in September.
“I would not say we are deeply concerned, but we look at Russia with concern – particularly because there is a massive military exercise in September in which Russia will raise 100,000 men to their feet. The question is still ‘Why do such a large-scale exercise?’’. ‘Why do spontaneous exercises?’, Estonia’s Defence Minister Jüri Luik told EUROPE in Tallinn, adding that his country was watching Russia’s attitude with “great attention”.
In Herem’s view, while it is normal to prepare for defence, the exercise scenario bears on the attack of a country like Estonia or Lithuania, which is of concern to them. However, “we have not provided for anything special for this exercise, but we are ready” should there be need, he added, without giving further detail.
The Estonian minister said it was very important to have a NATO presence on Estonian soil, as has been the case since the spring with the battle group. This group comprises 800 British military and 320 French. Around 200 Danish military will take over from the French in 2018.
“I don’t believe a possible Russian threat is a constant, but that depends on what is done. If we have NATO troops here, if we have a credible ‘deterrence’, I think the rest is less important. But if we do not take defence seriously, the risk increases”, Luik stated.
In Herem’s view, the presence of the NATO battle group is a response to “the aggressive Russian attitude against Estonia. It will not just be against one country” but against NATO.
However, Estonia, like its allies, is not only faced with a physical attack but a cyberattack, which is also possible. NATO and the EU have moreover decided to cooperate further in this area, and the European Commission will put forward a new cyber defence strategy in September. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)