If all parties make a final effort, they will be able to complete the second monitoring mission of the Greek programme "in a short time", European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis stated at a plenary session of the European Parliament on Tuesday 14 February. He was answering questions from MEPs, particularly from Udo Bullmann (S&D, Germany), who asked what could prevent an agreement between the Greek authorities and the institutions representing the creditors.
Indeed, for several years now the indicators have never been as positive. Greece has resumed with growth and it has exceeded its budget objectives, as confirmed by the economic forecasts published by the European Commission on Monday (see EUROPE 11724). Sylvie Goulard (ALDE, France) also noted Dombrovskis' calm tone and the fact that despite this there was still an air of "crisis management mode".
In Frankfurt, the previous day, Dombrovskis had said that the problem was that "the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has come with very pessimistic economic and budget forecasts on Greece. Furthermore, it has not corrected its forecasts based on facts, and based on results". A European source noted on Tuesday that the IMF had certainly raised its growth forecasts for Greece, but had not moved an inch as regards the budget forecasts.
During his debate with MEPs, Dombrovskis said that Greece was on track for reaching its budget objectives this year (a primary budget surplus of 1.75%). However, there is a slight gap to be filled for 2018. "But measures have been pre-identified to close a substantial part of this gap", he said.
The Commission seems to be the only institution to think that a country which does better than the objectives set should not legislate in advance for a potential gap in the future. The agreement that the parties will have to reach will need to be politically acceptable, because the Tsipras' government only has a very small majority in the national parliament, and not damage the recovery, according to a European source.
"This is not the first time the IMF is voicing demands that are at odds with its European partners' positions", Bullmann stated. "Today, the problem is not that the Greek government is refusing to do what it should".
Goulard was questioned on whether it was perhaps time to ask if the Europeans wanted to continue with the IMF.
"Do the European creditors and IMF want Greece to be helped to get out of this crisis or do we perhaps want to accept a return backwards?", said Dimitris Papadimoulis (GUE/NGL, Greece). "The instability must not be fed. And the IMF must finally accept Eurostat's figures. We just want the respect of commitments so that the Greeks can finally come out of the tunnel", he said. (Original version in French by Élodie Lamer with Emmanuel Hagry)