If it is to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, the EU will have to phase out all the coal-fired power stations – numbering over 300 – within its borders by 2030, argues a report by climate research institute Climate Analytics, published on Thursday 9 February.
In the report, “A stress test for coal in Europe under the Paris Agreement”, researchers calculate that to stay within the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature limits of “well below” 2˚C and “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”, the EU’s CO2 emissions budget for coal in the power sector (a level of CO2 emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement) will be around 6.5Gt by 2050. The EU will exceed its Paris Agreement-compatible coal emissions budget by 85% if its existing coal-fired power plants continue operating to their full lifespan, the report states.
“Not only would existing coal plants exceed the EU’s emissions budget, but the eleven planned and announced plants would raise EU emissions to almost twice the levels required to keep warming to the Paris Agreement’s long term temperature goal”, warned Dr Michiel Schaeffer, Climate Analytics Science Director.
The report shows that emissions from coal in the EU electricity sector need to be reduced by 95% by 2030 and equal to zero by 2031, with a quarter of operating coal-fired power plants switched off before 2020 and a further 47% going offline by 2025.
Germany and Poland, which together are responsible for 51% of installed coal capacity and 54% of emissions from coal, will have the most work to do on a coal phase-out.
“We find the cheapest way for the EU to make the emissions cuts required to meet its Paris Agreement commitments is to phase out coal from the electricity sector, and replace this capacity with renewables and energy efficiency measures”, said Paola Yanguas Parra, a lead author of the report.
To meet the challenge, the report advocates a more effective EU emissions trading scheme (ETS), a stable and predictable investment framework, more ambitious targets for renewables strategies and policies at both national and regional levels to ensure a smooth transition and maximise usage of socio-economic opportunities. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)