Rarely in the memory of any employee of the European Parliament has the race for the Presidency of the European institution been so hotly disputed and hard to call.
Admittedly, two names are starting to stand out among the seven declared candidates, who come from all political groups with the exception of the Europhobic EFDD (see other article): Italian Christian Democrat Antonio Tajani and his compatriot, Social Democrat Gianni Pittella, have, in numerical terms, the greatest chances of victory. But on Friday 13 January, it was anybody's guess who would actually be able to win out, as no group is capable of doing this alone.
The EPP group, which is the largest political family in Parliament with 217 MEPs, believes that it should hold the top job at the Parliament until the end of the current legislative period following two and a half years of the Presidency of German Social Democrat Martin Schulz, who effectively took over from himself in 2014.
Tajani comes to the starting line with a slight advantage. On Friday, there was even talk of an agreement between the EPP and ECR group (74 MEPs) whereby the Eurosceptic MEPs would switch their votes to the Italian Christian Democrat in the fourth round of the election – a stage which, in the event of no clear winner, will be used to separate the two finalists. Rightly or wrongly, however, Tajani's image has been tarnished by his previous post as European Commissioner for Industry at the time of the scandal of fraudulent vehicle emissions tests.
By unanimously appointing Pittella as its candidate, the S&D group (189 MEPs) decided to break with the recent tradition which has seen the two largest political groups divide up the Presidency of the Parliament in a single legislative period. Pittella has pledged to depart from the 'Grand Coalition' made up of the EPP, S&D and ALDE groups (see EUROPE 11702). This argument is very much to the liking of the European Left, represented by the GUE/NGL and Greens/EFA groups, although they are not completely won over by it at this stage. The Social Democrats also take the view that the Christian Democrats are not sufficiently powerful in Europe that they should preside over the Commission, the European Council and the Parliament at the same time, even though this situation has previously come to pass.
At the centre of the political spectrum, the Liberal group (68 MEPs) chaired by Guy Verhofstadt may have a card or two up its sleeve, as the S&D does not want to come to an arrangement with the EPP. However, the former Belgian Prime Minister seems to have mortgaged some of his credibility when, earlier this week, his own camp spoke out against his attempts to bring 17 Italian MEPs from the 'Five Star Movement' into the fold of the ALDE group (see EUROPE 11699). Although Verhofstadt justified the move on the grounds of wanting to weaken a Eurosceptic force, the Liberal family took a dim view of the impact of this unholy alliance on the candidacy of the Belgian politician. Nevertheless, the votes of the Liberal MEPs will have an influence and will be hotly contested.
If, as all sides were predicting on Friday, each camp takes the fight to its logical conclusion, the election of the next President of the European Parliament will be played out in an all-Italian final. In this case, there is a risk that either Tajani or Pittella will be voted in on the back of the votes of Europhobic or even xenophobic movements.
Officially, the two groups are strongly denying having had any contact with any extremist group. Pittella has said that he expressly declines the votes of xenophobic MEPs, accusing Tajani – whose party, Forza Italia, governed in Italy under Silvio Berlusconi alongside the Lega Nord - of not having expressly done the same. The EPP responded by pointing out that as the vote will take place by secret ballot in each round of the election, it is not possible to decline the votes of extremists.
A number of MEPs, among them German Social Democrat Jo Leinen and French Liberal Sylvie Goulard, have warned against this danger. "The risk is high, particularly with a secret ballot, that a President will end up being elected by simple majority, with the support of extremists. That would be a weak President ", bearing in mind that Parliament will be called upon to approve the agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, said Goulard, who at one point sought to stand on behalf of the ALDE group (see EUROPE 11676).
At each round of the voting with the exception of the fourth, a group (or a minimum of 38 MEPs) may put forward the name of a new candidate who has a chance of winning out over the candidates still struggling to make a good account of themselves. On Friday, however, nobody would risk predicting such a move, which has indeed never happened before. Another question raised is the impact such an episode would have, part of the way through the legislative period, on the forthcoming political negotiations on specific dossiers. One thing, however, is certain, in the view of an expert parliamentary source: despite the coldness of the winter, the telephones will be hot all weekend! (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)