It may not be perfect but at least the agreement reached by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) on Montreal on Thursday 6 October allowing the aviation sector to contribute to global efforts to address climate change is there, in the view of the European Commission, immediately welcoming it as a landmark agreement. Environmentalists, however, were less fulsome in their welcome.
The agreement concluded among the 195 parties to ICAO is a global market-based measure that aims at carbon-neutral growth from 2020 by means of technological, organisational and sectoral management improvements and a system for offsetting aviation emissions through other sectors of economic activity. Participation in the scheme will be voluntary between 2021 and 2026. From 2027, the start of the second phase (2027-2035), it will become compulsory. A review clause means that the level of ambition may be heightened over the years (see EUROPE 11637 and 11633). The text tabled was amended only slightly, on the edges, for example, with the last minute dropping of plans to align ICAO policies with the Paris agreement’s 1.5/2°C warming limit.
If the European Commission and the industry described the step forward taken by the agreement as “unprecedented”, it is because this is the very first global agreement tackling aviation’s CO² emissions which, though they may currently only represent 2% of global emissions, could, if there are no policy changes, rise by 300% by 2050. Anyone who was expecting an immediate reduction in emissions from a sector that has remained only on the margins of the fight against climate change will have been disappointed.
Eighteen of the twenty countries that have a large aviation sector (including all the member states of the EU, the United States, China, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates) have pledged to join the scheme from 2021. Russia and India, however, will join from 2027, along with Brazil, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, South Africa and Chile. Between 2021 and 2035, some 80% of emissions exceeding the 2020 level will have to be offset, the Commission says.
Transport Commissioner Violeta Bulc, who had made the participation of the largest possible number of countries from the start of the first phase and the widest possible coverage of emissions as the two conditions for success, was happy (see EUROPE 11630). She said that she would continue to fight in the coming years to convince others and to increase the number of participants.
“I am happy. After one and a half year of negotiations, it paid off. We might have been more ambitious but it’s incredible. We have achieved a first global deal one day after we ratified the Paris agreement and COP 21 obligations which set up an inspirational framework. This deal is a decisive step towards the carbon neutral growth of aviation. I hope it will inspire more sectors to follow, in particular the shipping sector”, the commissioner told a group of journalists on Thursday evening immediately on conclusion of the agreement. “We did not water down the deal. At least aviation will have a sustainable way to fly. It is a strong political deal, a political commitment. Technical details will be negotiated in the three coming years. The EU should act as a mediator”, she added.
The technical details will relate to offsetting mechanisms and criteria for eligible projects, key elements if the agreement is to have any substance.
“The most important thing was to get the deal. We got it. Offset will have to be of high quality and UN based. We agreed to ban the most controversial offsets. Projects using old fossil fuels will not be eligible”, Bulc made clear.
“Every three years we will be monitoring the progress. We cannot water down the deal. It can only be approved or stay the same”, she added. The review planned for 2025 will be carried out by ICAO.
Bulc will defend the agreement before the European Parliament’s environment committee on Wednesday 12 October and, at this stage, has remained silent on what is in store for European legislation on the emissions trading scheme (ETS) that concerns the Greens/EFA in Parliament and many MEPs. An assessment report on the ICAO agreement, drafted in close collaboration with Climate and Energy Commissioner Miguel Arias Canete, is expected to be presented by the Commission before any decision is taken.
“I’ve already talked to parliamentarians of the major political groups, including the Greens, when I was back from Montreal. They would have liked a much more ambitious deal. But we have really got the best we could to get everybody on board”, stated Bulc.
In the European Parliament, Peter Liese (EPP, Germany), rapporteur on the inclusion of aviation in the ETS and on the “Stop the Clock” regulation, was disappointed and spoke of an agreement that is unambitious for aviation and unfair for other industries. “The decision unfortunately doesn’t foresee any emissions reduction. This is very disappointing given the fact the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has proposed a reduction of 50% until 2050. Furthermore, CO² neutral growth is virtual only as airlines are going to offset their emissions.” He noted that Parliament had expressed its disappointment on Thursday that the text adopted was virtually unchanged from the draft tabled, and pointed out that the resolution by MEPs states that any amendment of the existing legislation on including aviation in the ETS can only be considered if the global market-based measure is ambitious, and that, in any case, intra-European flights will continue to be covered by the ETS.
The NGO Transport and Environment (T&E), which campaigns for sustainable transport, deeply regrets the decision to offset rather than reduce CO² emissions and feels that working on a voluntary basis is “a weak start which must be followed with more effective measures”. It goes on to say that the coverage of emissions “falls well short of the carbon neutral growth in 2020 target promised by ICAO and industry, and the lack of clear rules for offsets presents a clear risk to the measure’s environmental effectiveness”. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)