Brussels, 15/07/2016 (Agence Europe) - The European Commission proposal on effort-sharing among the member states in the sectors outside the emissions quotas trading scheme (ETS) in order to reach the EU's 2030 climate target (a reduction of at least 40% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared with 1990) could reward countries which are not on track to achieve their 2020 reduction targets, warns Climate Action Network Europe (CAN EUROPE).
The reasons behind the warning are set out in the report “No cheating from the start”, published by the NGO network on 13 July, exactly a week before the Commission is expected to present its summer package, on Wednesday 20 July.
The sectors outside the ETS (transport, agriculture, waste, buildings and light industry) must cut their emissions by 30% by 2030, compared with 2005 (rather than the 43% for ETS sectors) and each member state will consequently be awarded a 10-year carbon budget (2021-2030). For the total amount of polluting carbon these sectors will be allowed to emit after 2020, the reference emissions level of starting point is as important as the binding national target, states CAN Europe.
However, there is, according to CAN Europe, a risk that, based on the current rules, the Commission will decide to set the starting point at the average emissions level for 2016-2018. While this is a positive effort to take into account that many countries will overshoot their 2020 target, it would, at the same time, reward Austria, Belgium, Ireland and Luxembourg, who are not on track to reach their 2020 targets, since their starting point for emission reductions would be then higher than their target in 2020.
CAN Europe says that it is possible, too, that the proposal will benefit countries, like Denmark, Finland, Germany and the UK, whose average emissions in 2016-2018 are projected to be higher than their 2020 target. Thus, if Germany is taken as an example, its 2021 emissions budget, based on its 2020 target would be 425.6 million tonnes of CO2 and, based on projected average emissions for 2016-2018, its carbon budget would be 435.4 million tonnes. Yet German emissions in 2020 are forecast to be 421.7 million tonnes. Thus, it is argued, these four countries will be discouraged from making further efforts to reach their 2020 targets, the NGO network says.
The eight above-mentioned countries together account for almost 40% of the non-ETS emissions. Setting a starting level that is weaker than their 2020 target would, therefore, have a substantial impact on total greenhouse gas emissions in the EU.
Linear trajectory. Instead of a starting point calculated on the basis of average 2016-2018 emissions, CAN Europe proposes that the starting point should be based on a linear trajectory from their 2016-2018 average emissions and that, for the countries that fail to reach their 2020 target, a linear trajectory from their 2020 target should be used. These two solutions have been proposed by France and Germany and will, CAN Europe says, reduce the EU's carbon budget by at least 850 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions.
For a number of weeks, environmental, climate and forestry NGOs have been enumerating the possible shortcomings in the summer package that could undermine the EU's climate targets. In addition to the proposal on effort sharing, the summer package will contain a specific proposal on agriculture and forests (LULUCF) and a communication on decarbonising transport (EUROPE 11572). (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)