Brussels, 03/12/2015 (Agence Europe) - Over the coming years, general stagnation of crop prices is forecast before they increase again from 2022, said Koen Dillen, of the outlook unit of the European Commission's DG Agriculture on Wednesday 2 December.
The price of wheat is predicted to be around €190 per tonne in 2025, well below the 2012 peak of €250/tonne, Dillen said during the EU agricultural outlook conference. However, greater price rises are likely to be seen over the course of the period from 2015 to 2025 because of the fall in production in a major producer country. The Commission expects even greater concentration on maize and wheat.
Between 2016 and 2025, the demand for cereals will be led principally by animal feeds and the good export outlook, especially for wheat and barley, the Commission said.
However, biofuels will no longer be one of the main drivers of growth. The uncertainties on the market after 2020 are too great (no European incorporation target, ceiling imposed for first generation, second generation finding it difficult to become competitive, change in national legislation, notably in Germany, low oil prices). Biofuels will account for only 6.5% of fuels used in transport by 2020 (up 15%), the Commission forecasts.
The growth of cereal production in Europe will be restricted by the reduction in arable land (-3%) and low yield increase, particularly for straw cereals.
The demand for oilseeds will probably be led the livestock sector. Imports of soya-meal are likely to be the largest beneficiary. Rapeseed and sunflower production are predicted to remain steady, despite a drop in the area under cultivation. A fall is likely in the share held by vegetable oils in biofuel production, to the advantage of used oils and crop residues.
The production of protein crops will jump by over 40% over the period in view of the favourable political climate (coupled support and ecological focus areas). The total surface area given over to these crops is expected to remain small, however.
It is over the sugar sector that the greatest uncertainty hangs, given the announced ending of production quotas in 2017. Isoglucose could break into certain markets, in particular in the member states which have given up sugar production. In general, the price of sugar in the EU is likely to fall slowly, coming in line with world prices. Despite this price fall, sugar production is forecast to rise to almost 18 million tonnes by 2025 (up 5%), thanks to improved yields. The EU is likely, then, to become self-sufficient in sugar and could even become an exporter. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)