Brussels, 09/10/2015 (Agence Europe) - In its short-term outlook, published on 7 October, the European Commission forecasts a 1% increase in milk deliveries in the EU in 2015 and a 1.7% increase in 2016.
In the milk and dairy sector, the rise in production is expected to continue despite prices which are not forecast to rise for several months, the Commission says.
Prices for dairy commodity materials have now stabilised in the EU but there could still be further falls in the short term, the Commission says in its autumn 2015 outlook. Prices are unlikely to begin to rise again until next year, warn the services of Commissioner Phil Hogan.
In the dairy sector, despite low prices, milk deliveries are expected to rise slightly by 1% in 2015 compared with 2014 and a higher rise of 1.7% is forecast for 2016. Strong increases are forecast for the Netherlands (600,000 tonnes), Ireland (500,000 t), Poland (200,000 t), the United Kingdom (150,000 t), Spain and Denmark (100,000 t each). Production is expected to fall in the two main milk producers, Germany and France (down some 150,000 t each).
Despite the fall in prices, production is not expected to suffer. There are several reasons for this. First of all, the large number of dairy cattle currently producing milk results from decisions made by farmers at least a year ago. Between April (when the quota system came to an end) and July, milk deliveries in the EU rose by around 2.5% on the previous year. In addition, feed prices have been relatively low and pasture availability has been normal, except in some countries more affected by heat waves during summer. Lastly, milk is processed into powder and butter for which demand has remained high as a result of the competitive prices and opportunities for private storage.
Increase in meat production. The fall in the prices of dairy products has an impact on beef meat, with more cattle being slaughtered. The result is that beef meat production in the EU in the first half of 2015 was up 3.4% on the previous year. In 2015, production could increase by 2% in total. And for 2016, a further increase of 0.6% is forecast. Despite this, prices remain strong, above the level of previous years, the Commission notes. In general, the recovery in production observed in 2014 is expected to be confirmed in all meat sectors in 2015.
Despite the fall in pigmeat prices, slaughtering was up 3.9% in the first half of 2015 and, while it has slowed since, production is still expected to increase by 2.7% over the course of the year and by 0.5% in 2016.
The situation in the poultry sector is similar. The increase in poultry meat production could be around 2.6% higher than in 2014. The growth is likely to continue in 2016 but at a lesser pace.
Cereals. EU cereal production is expected to reach 301.9 million tonnes. Though this is 8% lower than last year, there is no concern being expressed by the Commission, which points out that only three of the last ten seasons have been more productive. The decrease is mainly the result of lower yields (-7%) in particular for maize and to a lesser extent smaller area harvested (-1%).
Sugar. The Commission expects a rise in sugar prices in the EU as a result of the “significant” reduction in white sugar production in Europe. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)