Luxembourg, 06/10/2015 (Agence Europe) - Contrary to the European Commission's analysis, Spain is certain that it is on track to meet the 4.2% target for its public deficit in 2015.
“For the 2015 budget, we are absolutely confident that we will meet the 4.2% objective, taking account of the analysis of public income and expenditure”, the Spanish Finance Minister, Luis de Guindos, stated on Monday 5 October, after the meeting of the Eurogroup. The day after, he ruled out the adoption of adjustment measures for 2015 before the end of the term in office of the Spanish parliament, at the end of October.
The Commission is reported to forecast that the Spanish public deficit will stand at 4.5% of GDP, whereas the target laid down at European level is 4.2%. However, contrary to the announcement the day before by the Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Pierre Moscovici (see EUROPE 11403), the institution was unable to adopt an early opinion on budgetary execution for 2015 and on the draft Spanish budget for 2016, on Tuesday 6 October. Discussions are still underway and are expected to be finalised “in the coming days”, the Commissioner for the Euro, Valdis Dombrovskis, said from Strasbourg. When asked about Moscovici's statement after the Eurogroup meeting, he stressed that the figures his colleague put forward were binding upon him only, as the Commission's opinion has still to be approved at College level.
According to De Guindos, the difference in assessments for 2015 between Madrid and the European institution are the result of the growth forecasts. Presented ahead of time in early August, the Spanish draft budget for 2016 indicates GDP growth of 3.3% in 2015 and 3% in 2016 (see EUROPE 11375). The Commission now calculates that growth in Spain will stand at 3.1% for 2015 and 2.7% in 2016, whereas in the spring, it had predicted GDP growth of 2.8% in the country.
As regards the Spanish deficit for 2016, the Commission is reported to be talking about a difference of 0.7% of GDP between its assessment (3.5%) and the target laid down at European level (2.8%).
The Spanish authorities will be called upon to take account of the Commission's assessment on the execution of the 2015 budget and the draft budget 2016, and to take all necessary measures to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact before the mandate of the national parliament ends in late October. The next Spanish government, to be voted in at the general elections of Sunday 20 December, will also be called upon to submit a revised draft budget to the European institution.
“If the opinion (of the Commission) is to take necessary measures to ensure compliance, then it is up to the Spanish government to follow up on that opinion. We'll take stock on the situation on 23 November” at an extraordinary Eurogroup meeting, the President of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said on Monday evening. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)