Brussels, 28/09/2015 (Agence Europe) - The Catalan separatist party, Junts pel si ('Together for a yes vote') came first in the elections in Catalonia on Sunday 27 September, thus raising a new series of questions about the future of the region within the EU, should it decide to secede from Spain.
Easily beating the Popular Party's 8.4% of the vote, the separatist coalition led by Artur Mas won 39.4% of the vote and political commentators expect it to form a coalition government with the CUP (7.95% of the vote), the other radical left separatist party. The results are regenerating the separatist question in the corridors of power at the European institutions.
Quizzed by a number of journalists on Monday 28 September, European Commission spokesperson Margaritis Schinas was cautious and simply stated that the Commission was not in the habit of commenting on national elections.
Several European Commissioners, however, including the former vice-president of the European Commission Viviane Reding on 23 February 2014 commenting on the Catalan question and former Commission president José Manuel Durao Barroso, speaking about Scotland on 16 February 2014, warned of the consequences of secession, stating that any separating region would find itself de facto ejected from the eurozone and the European Union as well.
From a legal point of view, secession followed by a separating nation joining the EU should not cause huge problems in terms of international law, explained an emeritus professor of international law at the Université Libre de Bruxelles, Éric David, speaking to EUROPE. He pointed out that firstly, while there is not secessionist law in international law or EU law, that was to be expected because states would not want to saw off the branch they're sitting on.
Such legal uncertainty does not, however, mean that secession is not possible, but that since the statement of independence of Pakistan in 1947 (a legal opinion by the UN Assembly General's commission allowing India to remain a member of the UN without having to apply for membership), states consider that the creation of a new state should be assessed by other states in line with their views.
The main obstacle for Catalonia, if it separates from Spain, would be policies. The real challenge, according to Prof. David, would be winning recognition from other EU member states in order to be able to become an EU candidate country, adding that the crucial question would be whether Madrid would do so.
Many other tricky questions would need to be dealt with between an independent Catalonia and Spain, such as how to divide up assets since Catalonia owns assets and property in Spain and vice versa. There could also be a question about the future of Spain because the hiving off of a section of the Spanish mainland might also challenge Spain's status as an EU member state, although Prof. David says this scenario would be unlikely.
Such a scenario may be unlikely, but it is not impossible, because he pointed out that when Yugoslavia fell, the new countries refused to recognise Serbia as the natural heir to the ancien regime, although on the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was recognised by the former satellite states as the heir to the USSR.
The professor thinks the obstacles to Catalonia potentially separating off from Spain are not insurmountable. He pointed out that Barcelona is the economic lung of the Spanish peninsula and introducing customs restrictions would have unimaginable economic consequences. (Original version in French by Pascal Hansens)