Brussels, 09/03/2015 (Agence Europe) - Prospects for 2015-2016 are good in cereals and are improving for meats, and milk production is unlikely to explode because of the ending of quotas. That, in short, is the message of the European Commission report published on Monday 9 March on the short-term prospects for agricultural markets in 2015 and 2016.
The 2014-2015 cereal harvest was exceptionally good (327 million tonnes, an increase of 7% on the previous harvest). The Commission believes conditions for 2015-2016 are good, forecasting production of over 300 million tonnes).
The Commission points out, too, that sugar production was exceptionally good in 2014-2015, increasing by 6% in 2014 on the previous year. It notes a fall in sugar prices at the end of 2014.
With regard to milk and dairy products, the Commission says that prices fell sharply in 2014 as a result principally of the Russian embargo on EU agricultural products. In December 2014, prices had dropped by 30% in a year in the Baltic States, Belgium and the Netherlands, by 20% in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Poland, Luxembourg and Sweden, and by 10% in France and Italy. Initial estimates in January 2015 suggest that price falls are beginning to slow and that milk prices could stabilise. Prices are likely to increase in the coming months, the report states. The Commission expects what it judges to be a moderate increase in deliveries of milk of around 1% in 2015, the first year without production quotas. It expects an increase in supply in some countries, like Ireland (+4.2%), the Netherlands (+0.8%) and Germany (+0.7%).
An increase of almost 2% is forecast by the Commission for the production of beef and veal in 2015. The production of pigmeat is also likely to rise, though prices are expected to fall. European exports of pigmeat have fallen dramatically (down 13% in 2014) because of the Russian embargo. (Lionel Changeur)