Brussels, 16/10/2014 (Agence Europe) - The stress tests of the EU's energy system to an interruption in gas supplies - tests revealed by European Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger on Thursday 16 October - show that a prolonged interruption to gas supplies would have a significant impact. The European Commission therefore advocates increased cooperation between the EU member states.
After the shortages in gas resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian gas disputes in 2006 and 2009, the current crisis in Ukraine and tension with Russia have again put the EU on alert as to the seriousness of its dependence on imported energy, and as to the dependence of certain member states on a single gas supplier - Russia. The new common strategy for energy security, presented by the European Commission at the end of May, is based in particular on short-term measures to strengthen the EU's capacity to overcome a major disruption to supply in the winter of 2014-2015, given the Russian-Ukraine gas dispute. For this reason, the Commission proposed carrying out stress tests of the EU's energy system to an interruption in supply. The objective was to gain a clear vision of areas where the most serious shortages would occur, and of the ways that could be planned to remedy them. In the light of the Ukrainian crisis, the European Council of 26-27 June supported establishing urgent measures to strengthen the EU's resilience and its short-term energy security.
The Commission report published on Thursday presents the results of a modelling exercise conducted by 38 European countries, including the 28 EU member states, the countries of the Energy Community (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia - FYROM, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, Moldova and Ukraine), plus Georgia, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey. It analyses in particular the resilience of the EU's energy system to a potential gas crisis in the coming months through different scenarios - including a complete halt of Russian gas imports into the EU for a period of six months, and an interruption to Russian gas imports transiting Ukraine.
The tests show that prolonged supply disruption would have a substantial impact in the EU, with the Eastern member states and the Energy Community countries being affected most. Finland, Estonia, FYROM, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Serbia would miss at least 60% of the gas they need. In this worst case scenario, even private households might no longer be able to put on their heating. By contrast, increased cooperation between the countries would mean that no household in the EU would have to suffer from the cold, Oettinger underlined.
National reports show that EU countries and neighbouring countries envisage a wide range of measures to mitigate the impacts of a disruption to gas supply - from diversifying their supplies, to using reserves and strategic stocks, to curtailing demand and switching fuels where possible. However, in general, these plans are often too limited to the national market and resort too quickly to interventionist measures, the Commission states. A market-based approach should be the guiding principle, according to the Commission, with non-market measures (i.e. the release of strategic stocks, forced fuels switching, and demand curtailment) only kicking in when the market fails.
Among other short term measures based on the analysis of the stress tests, the Commission recommends strengthened energy cooperation between the countries, especially with the maximisation of interconnection capacities and the removal of cross-border restrictions to trade in energy. In addition, responsibility should be shared between the public authorities and industry, through implementation of Regulation 994/2010 on the security of gas supply. Changes in short-term behaviour should also be enacted to strengthen energy efficiency and reduce demand.
On the level of methodology, the Commission report (which will be submitted to the European Council on 23-24 October) consists of an aggregated analysis of the results provided by the EU member states and the Energy Community countries. It includes an impact analysis conducted by the European Network of Transportation System Operators (ENTSOG) in collaboration with the International Energy Agency (IEA) and G-7 partner countries (US, Canada, Japan). It also includes the analyses of three focus groups (South-East Europe, the Baltics and Finland, and the Energy Community) and a report on cooperation with G7 and other partner countries. It also includes a report on the Security of Gas Supply Regulation.
The EU currently imports 53% of the energy it consumes - that's a bill of around €400 billion per year. Its dependence on crude oil is 88%, 66% on natural gas, 42% on solid fuels (coal), and 40% on nuclear fuel. (EH)