Brussels, 15/09/2014 (Agence Europe) - It is becoming increasingly likely that the Yes vote for Scottish independence will win the day as it pulls ahead in the opinion polls four days before the historic referendum, with between 50 and 54% of voting intentions in the last three polls.
Over 90% of people in Scotland aged 16 and over have registered to vote in the referendum which could change the face of Europe. During the weekend, observers raised a fresh question: What does the Queen think? The monarch chose not to adopt any position in this democratic process, restricting herself on Sunday 14 September to counselling the Scots to think carefully. The supporters of independence intend to retain the queen as head of state, as she is for 25 other countries across the globe. There remains much to be negotiated, then, in the next 18 months if the Yes vote carries the day. On the one hand, there is secession from the United Kingdom that the Scots will have to negotiate, with the vexed question of the currency the country will use (the Scottish government has said that it intends to continue to use sterling). In Scotland for his tenth and final visit before the referendum on Thursday, Prime Minister David Cameron was expected, late on Monday 15 September, to make clear the definitive and irreversible nature of a vote for independence.
European headache. In addition, Edinburgh will have to negotiate the “re-accession” of this new country to the European Union. It is a path that appears to be fraught with problems. The European Commission continues to refuse to make any comment on what might happen. In the past, however, the Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, and the president of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, have said that the treaties would no longer apply to a new state created by a secession within the EU, thereby making any new country a non-EU state. The most likely scenario in the event of victory for the Yes vote would be to open an accession procedure, even though Scotland already applies all the European rules. There are questions also over calculation of Scotland's contribution to the European budget (with or without the rebate?), allocation of structural funding, fishing quotas, accession or not to the Schengen area (supporters of independence are looking for an opt-out) and eventually joining the euro. Quite a list of unforeseen issues that will require the Lisbon Treaty to be amended, something that will necessitate the approval of the Council and the European Parliament. Ratification is not certain, as other member states, such as Spain and Belgium, are facing powerful independence movements. (MD)