The issue has become global. The events prompted, at the start, by Ukraine's difficulties have progressively snowballed to the point of directly involving the three main world powers - the European Union, Russia as a whole (with other countries of the former USSR) and the US. The media's tendency for sensationalism has exaggerated the seriousness of the situation to the point of giving rise to the feeling of a world war - or nearly.
This world conflict has fortunately now been set aside and is no longer announced as imminent. Nevertheless the exaggerations - be they in good or bad faith - continue aplenty and follow the eternal rule of the responsibility, deception and deviations always coming from elsewhere. Fortunately, the opinions of the EU member states partly differ and the behaviour of the whole takes account of this. The outcome is positive because it results in an attitude that is reasonably balanced. The EU has thus avoided the easy way of meting out all the blame to Russia. The maintenance of a certain balance in the European attitude is not only due to the official political forces, but is shared with the social and economic categories because the body that represents them in the EU (the EESC - the European Economic and Social Committee) has taken a position for appeasement, believing that “the maintenance of the historical, economic and cultural links with Russia is possible”.
EU and Russia must cooperate reasonably. The observations above are not only based on the concern to appease the atmosphere and to avoid any risk of conflict, but also - and especially - on the real economic needs. Both Europe and Russia should take a few truths into account - 30% of the gas imported into the EU is Russian; for Russia, exports of gas and oil equate to around half the state's revenue; Russia is the second biggest producer after the US; Ukraine is not autonomous for the energy it consumes and all the gas that it receives comes from Russia.
The outcome is that the EU needs Russian gas and Russia needs to sell it. Ukraine benefits from this situation, although according to the Russian authorities Ukraine does not always respect its obligations. This situation led Moscow to propose a reduction in the price of gas to Ukraine and financial support worth $15 billion - a sum currently blocked, but included in the Russian budget.
The conclusion is therefore that the breadth and significance of Europe-Russia cooperation in the energy domain must not be overlooked. The interest is currently reciprocal - although the EU will gradually strengthen its other sources of energy. The famous Nabucco pipeline will be fed with gas from Azerbaijan and will be able to feed Italy and Greece. Through this route and through others, Europe will reduce its dependence on Russia - but cooperation will continue as several large European companies are participating in Russian projects.
The US interests are different. The interests of the US are partly different. All the media have reported on the telephone conversations between Obama and Putin and their total disagreement. However, the divergences in the area of energy are considerable between Brussels and Washington too - even if in general this aspect is skimmed over. The European attitude is not explicitly criticised on the other side of the Atlantic but the sharp attacks against Russia are indirectly aimed at Europe too. Part of the European press has also reproduced a strong offensive against Moscow, signed Frederick Forsyth and announcing the death of the illusions of the West and of Putin. The journalist and novel writer recognises that Europeans cannot currently do without Russian gas and pipelines - although one day they will be able to do so and then the Russian economy will no longer have any value. The implication is that the gas for Europe will be able to come from the US. Of course, relations with Washington will always remain an essential element of European policy - but everything points to these projects of an ever greater unity, thanks to the development of very ambitious projects (that this column covered at length at the time), having partly lost their attraction and now coming up against difficulties. Everything can and must be revived - but I don't believe that Europe should demolish its energy cooperation with Russia and become largely (too) dependent on the Americans in this sector. It is important for the EU to cooperate with the authorities of the greatest number possible of energy supplying countries - especially those that are nearby. The differences of opinion with Russia on foreign policy should not impact on the energy domain, where collaboration exists and is positive.
(FR)